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Afternoon Note

Monday Strength

By Karina Hernandez, Senior Research Analyst
10/20/2025 1:28 PM

Major indices are rallying today, boosted by fresh optimism around U.S.-China trade relations, with Trump saying he expects a fair deal to be negotiated in South Korea. In addition, he said he has been invited to China and will travel there in early 2026. To add, Hassett indicated that further meetings will likely clear up misunderstandings.

Another additional tailwind for the market today is the government shutdown front. The betting market’s prediction, for how long the shutdown will last, is finally trending lower. This comes following an interview with Kevin Hassett, this morning, when he indicated it could end as soon as this week.

Other important headlines today were Trump signing a rare earth agreement with Australia, further strengthening his negotiating position, and helping to alleviate the dependence on China for these elements.

In other news, S&P cut the French government’s credit rating.

The already debt burdened nation is now expected to increase debt levels at a higher pace than previously anticipated.

The only sectors in the red are the more defensive sectors: Consumer Staples (XLP) and Utilities (XLU). Meanwhile, Technology (XLK) is in the lead as many semiconductor names give the sector a boost.

The Ten-Year Treasury Yield (TNX) is edging into the 3s and breaking the support around 4%.


 

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