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Morning Commentary

THE BAND IS PLAYING THEIR FAVORITE TUNE

By Charles Payne, CEO & Principal Analyst
11/25/2025 9:51 AM

It was a solid session for the market yesterday, as investors returned to their beloved favorite names.

A screenshot of a computerAI-generated content may be incorrect.

A screenshot of a computerAI-generated content may be incorrect.

The Band is Back

Jalen Brunson and Josh Hart looking at Donte DiVincenzo

By now, you know the drill – large square and rectangular boxes are greener than the market screams.  That was the case yesterday, as growth vaulted back to the top.

Semiconductors were the stars yet again, as the hottest names of 2025 found their footing and resumed their impressive march higher.

S&P 500 Map

Market Breadth

There was a sharp improvement in market breadth, although new lows continued to outpace new highs on the NASDAQ Composite. But the real story was up volume 3:1 over down volume.

The NASDAQ is right back to its 50-day moving average. 

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Growth and momentum soared, while low volatility wobbled.

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Some Wall Street hotshots are saying the pullback is already over.

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Manufacturing Looks Poised for Strong 2026

More regional Federal Reserve data points lead to manufacturing building momentum, as we head into 2026.

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But the jobs picture remains murky. There is no doubt this sector will benefit from the artificial intelligence (AI) building boom, and trillions of dollars in foreign commitments to build in America, but it doesn’t happen overnight.

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Although the announcement was telegraphed over the weekend, it will be interesting to see the impact of “The Genesis Mission” today.

Today’s Session

Economic data released this morning has nudged the pendulum of concern, closer to jobs than to inflation, boosting the chances of a rate cut on December 10th.

The market likes that, but the battle in AI chips is weighing on the market, particularly the NASDAQ Composite.

ADP Weekly Employment Report

The four-week employment average shed 13,500 jobs for the week of November 8th, up from 2,500 in the prior reading.

This is a red flag.

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Retail Sales

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Producer Price Index

PPI came in below estimates, further supporting the swing of the pendulum of concern to the labor market.

A screen shot of a screenAI-generated content may be incorrect.

A screen shot of a screenAI-generated content may be incorrect.

Changing the AI Chip Guard?

Last month, Alphabet (GOOG/L) received a significant order for its TPUs from Anthropic, and now the scuttlebutt is that they will receive an even larger order from Meta Platforms (META). The story puts enormous pressure on Nvidia (NVDA) and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD). It would be creative destruction at its finest (and Nvidia (NVDA) will come back with upgraded chips soon).

Understanding Creative Destruction: Driving Innovation and Economic Change


 

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