It was another day of tough sledding yesterday, paced by headlines and speculation out of Iran, and the price of crude oil. The higher West Texas Intermediate (WTI) moved up, putting more pressure on the stock market. Interestingly, the Energy (XLE) Sector hasn’t rallied as much as oil has this week. Right now, it’s all about when this conflict will end.

 

There was nowhere to hide yesterday, but there was a lot of bottom fishing among beaten-down niches of the market.

Who are you calling soft?  Don’t look now, but iShares Expanded Tech-Software ETF (IGV) is racing back.  IGV has rebounded from extremely oversold (see red circles) on the relative strength index (RSI), but the past moves were short-lived, as the money flow index indicator (MFI) wasn’t sustained. This time, MFI is holding up, and these stocks are making big rebounds.

The Switch

For months, semiconductors rallied higher, while software tanked. The script has been flipped, as IGV is now outperforming the iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX).

Retail investor sentiment got less bearish but not more bullish, as the neutral column widened. I think that’s the smart move for now.

Jobs Day

The economic data this year has been great. According to Apollo, several factors suggest the number should be strong.

All the ducks are in a row. One ‘Big Beautiful’ law is working, and there is upside momentum for the economy, and this stock market is a coiled spring.

President Trump can only give this conflict another week to ten days – secure the Strait of Hormuz and call it a day.

Today’s Session

Major indices are looking to open under pressure as investors continue to assess the Iranian Conflict.

Energy commodity prices are moving higher following Iranian strikes on more tankers in the Persian Gulf.

Retail Sales declined 0.2% M/M in January from a flat reading in December but beat the anticipated 0.3% decline.

Non-farm Payrolls fell by 92K jobs in February following a 126K rise in January and below estimates of a 59K rise.

Furthermore, the unemployment rate rose to 4.4% in February from 4.3% and above expectations that the rate would stay flat.

Comments

Given the severe weather the job rates are not surprising, and one thing that has not been discussed, every time one of those missiles is fired, or bombs is dropped a new job is created. Tom Sanders on 3/6/2026 10:28:00 AM

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