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Morning Commentary

BARNBURNER

By Charles Payne, CEO & Principal Analyst
7/2/2025 9:38 AM

What a compelling session. In the blink of an eye yesterday, investors rang the register on the hottest names in the market and immediately pumped cash into the hardest hit names in the market. If you set the session to music, it would be a square dance. And it happened ‘just because.’

Change Partners

The shift in action occurred across the entire equity spectrum and within the S&P 500, where Communication Services (XLC) and Technology (XLK) were the only sectors to finish in the red. It was enough for a “down” day in the market, but when nine sectors are higher, it is not a bad day for stocks.

Advancers significantly outpaced decliners, and new highs swelled.

Market Breadth

NYSE

NASDAQ

Advancers

2,098

2,564

Decliners

688

1,919

New Highs

118

176

New Lows

15

73

Up Volume

3.56 billion

3.71 billion

Down Volume

1.50 billion

3.90 billion

Casinos & Home Builders

Home builders dominated the list of largest advancers, led by Builders FirstSource Inc (BLDR), as investors sensed the need for consolidation to counteract an oversold bounce.

I love charts like these.

Making Bets Again

Singer and actor Jacky Cheung, widely regarded as the Heavenly King of Cantopop music and the “God of Songs” in Hong Kong popular culture, brought his magic touch to Macau, drawing out the heavy baccarat players.

The most impressive thing about Cheung is that, at 63 years old, he is still rocking. There’s hope for me yet. However, there is greater hope for U.S. casino operators with operations in Macau, which were the top three gainers in the Consumer Discretionary (XLY) sector yesterday.

Deep Dives

Check out how badly the biggest gainers in the session have been down over the past 52 weeks. Some deep dives were happening, and they will remain in place for a while.

Additional Themes

We knew this was coming when banks were given the green light to repurchase stock and increase dividends.

Today’s Session

The ADP Employment Report out this morning is something of a shock as there was a net 33,000 jobs lost versus the estimate of a 110,000 gain.

Most Disturbing

Massive jobs losses at smaller establishments.

Most Compelling

Goods jobs increased while services swooned.  We were told the tariffs would hurt goods producing jobs most.

The BLS number comes out in the morning tomorrow and could be completely different, but trends are trends, and I hope Jay Powell gets a chance to see this data.  A July rate cut may not be far-fetched after all.


 

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