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Morning Commentary

TIME FOR A LITTLE BIT OF LUCK

By Charles Payne, CEO & Principal Analyst
11/24/2025 9:38 AM

The market started last week on its back foot and never recovered. The fact of the matter is that the market peaked a month ago, as mega-cap tech began to sag, and no longer looked invincible.

There were signs of life on Wednesday, and then Nvidia (NVDA) seemed to deliver divine intervention, only for an early rally to descend into a freefall that ended only when the closing bell rang. Speaking of which, a different kind of savior emerged on Friday in the form of shifting hope for an accommodative Fed.

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Leadership

Communication Services (XLC) led the way on Friday, but the good news is all sectors finished in the green, although they drifted lower into the close. Several Health Care (XLV) names came on big during the week.

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Session

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Week

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Momentum Swings Both Ways

On Friday, small-cap names performed strongly across all extended factors, but large-cap momentum sagged.

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Watching large-cap momentum (MTUM), which is breaking down big time - sellers may not head to the sidelines.

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Lucky Day

When the market starts slipping, investors will grasp at anything. Today is generally the best day of the year, according to Bluekurtic Market Insights.

Fingers crossed.

Heatmap showing stock market seasonality for the S&P 500, with the percentage of positive days for each calendar day from 1950-2025. Darker blues indicate stronger performance. November 24th and December 26th stand out with the highest positivity rates, highlighting a strong historical pattern in the market and broader economy.

Today’s Session

It's an upbeat morning, but you can also still feel anxiety in the air.

Several Mag Seven names are poised to make big moves higher at the start of trading. Nvidia (NVDA) will be tepid out of the starting gate.

A wildcard could be a significant breakthrough in peace talks with Ukraine. Defense Secretary Rubio is making a series of positive comments.

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Also, this morning, Federal Reserve Governor Waller made the case for a rate cut in December.

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