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Morning Commentary

V FOR VICTORY

By Charles Payne, CEO & Principal Analyst
12/1/2025 9:38 AM

A screenshot of a computerAI-generated content may be incorrect.

It's hard to overstate how impressive last week was. I described the prior week as a “standing eight count” for the major averages, which have been vulnerable since late October (see chart). Despite the V-shaped rebound, there is still work to do. The market must post a new all-time high.

A graph showing the stock marketAI-generated content may be incorrect.

Rally Broadens

The broadening of the rally has been the real story, though most of the “Mag Seven” are hanging tough, while Alphabet (GOOG/L) is soaring.

S&P 500 Map

Buyers are flocking back to momentum darlings, although Health Care (XLV) is overbought on a short-term basis.

A screenshot of a graphAI-generated content may be incorrect.

Breadth

What stands out immediately from Friday’s session is the sharp decline in new 52-week lows. There were only four on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), and 44 on the NASDAQ Composite.  A week earlier, there was an avalanche of 52-week “lows” on both.

76% of the S&P 500 (SPX) finished in the plus column.

Factors

Once again, investors flocked to large-caps, although this time, value edged out momentum. Small-caps take a back seat when investors think the coast is clear.

A screenshot of a graphAI-generated content may be incorrect.

Economic Calendar

Lots of economic data this week, and while it's hard to imagine the rate cut pendulum swinging back to “no cuts,” these numbers will be very influential.

A screenshot of a calendarAI-generated content may be incorrect.

Today’s Session
After a positive rally from Friday, which pushed the S&P 500 into positive territory for the month and helped the S&P 500 track its seven consecutive wins, equities are rediscovering gravity in the first trading day of December as futures trade lower. The weakness started in Asia as the Nikkei fell close to 2% and JGB yields continue hitting levels not seen since before the Financial Crisis. Rising Japanese yields and the potential unwinding of carry trade is a problem.

According to Mastercard, retail spending, excluding automobiles, was up 4.1% YoY on Black Friday, while e-commerce was up 10.4% YoY ahead of Cyber Monday.

OPEC+ decided to continue its pause on output hikes in the first part of 2026.


 


A new version of DeepSeek was released today, with the model outperforming peers on some benchmarks.


 

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