Afternoon Note
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite hit an all-time high after the open today, before all major indices moved lower intraday as the government shutdown continues.

Almost all sectors are moving lower today. Defensive sectors such as Consumer Staples (XLP) and Health Care (XLV) are holding up the best. Consumer Staples’s gains are driven by strong leadership from Costco (COST), after reporting adjusted comparable sales growth of 6% for the month of September.

Despite Delta Air Lines (DAL) posting a nice gain this afternoon, Industrials (XLI) are lagging. Many of the top decliners in the sector are in the construction niche, with some transportation names also making an appearance.

Shutdown Update
As the government shutdown continues, betting markets continue to expect the shutdown to last longer, with the current forecast at 27.5 days. It should be noted the longest government shutdown in US history was between December 22nd, 2018 and January 25th, 2019, lasting 35 days.

As the shutdown goes on and official economic data continues to be delayed, uncertainty over the metrics can grow. However, by looking at private data like unemployment insurance payments it can be inferred that continuing claims are still edging higher.

Notably, the ten-year treasury yield (TNX) is up 1.3 basis points after bouncing back above the 4.1% level last week.

The 30-year bond auction saw a slightly softer demand than previous auctions. The auction showed a high yield of 4.734%, and above, by a slim margin, from when issued at 4.730%.

| Tweet |
| 11/12/2025 1:35 PM | Bottom Fishing Day |
| 11/12/2025 9:25 AM | MOVING OUT OF THE SHADOW OF MEGA CAPS |
| 11/11/2025 1:13 PM | Taking a Breather |
| 11/11/2025 9:33 AM | THE SMARTEST TAKES A LICKING AS THE GREATEST RIDES OFF |
| 11/10/2025 1:29 PM | Shutdown Progress Renews Appetite for Stocks |
| 11/10/2025 9:41 AM | SHUTTING DOWN THE SHUTDOWN |
| 11/7/2025 1:32 PM | Friday Frenzy |
| 11/7/2025 9:49 AM | SIGNIFICANT BUT OVERDUE SWOONS IN BIG NAMES |
| 11/6/2025 1:14 PM | Thursday Pullback |
| 11/6/2025 9:39 AM | ALL ABOARD! |
| 11/5/2025 1:28 PM | Recovery Day |
| 11/5/2025 9:40 AM | NOT UNUSUAL |
| 11/4/2025 1:41 PM | Stocks Retreat |
| 11/4/2025 9:38 AM | THROUGH THE EYE OF A NEEDLE |
| 11/3/2025 1:14 PM | Another Ugly Session |
| 11/3/2025 9:43 AM | FINDING A WAY - RALLY CONTINUES |
| 10/31/2025 1:36 PM | Market Retreat |
| 10/31/2025 9:49 AM | NOT AFRAID |
| 10/30/2025 1:35 PM | More Big Tech Ahead |
| 10/30/2025 10:17 AM | THE COOLER |
| 10/29/2025 1:55 PM | All Attention to Big Tech |
| 10/29/2025 9:38 AM | UGLY WIN |
| 10/28/2025 1:50 PM | Optimism Outweighs Softness |
| 10/28/2025 9:33 AM | ALL ABOUT Al (STILL) |
| 10/27/2025 1:17 PM | Excitement Grows |
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