Afternoon Note
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite hit an all-time high after the open today, before all major indices moved lower intraday as the government shutdown continues.
Almost all sectors are moving lower today. Defensive sectors such as Consumer Staples (XLP) and Health Care (XLV) are holding up the best. Consumer Staples’s gains are driven by strong leadership from Costco (COST), after reporting adjusted comparable sales growth of 6% for the month of September.
Despite Delta Air Lines (DAL) posting a nice gain this afternoon, Industrials (XLI) are lagging. Many of the top decliners in the sector are in the construction niche, with some transportation names also making an appearance.
Shutdown Update
As the government shutdown continues, betting markets continue to expect the shutdown to last longer, with the current forecast at 27.5 days. It should be noted the longest government shutdown in US history was between December 22nd, 2018 and January 25th, 2019, lasting 35 days.
As the shutdown goes on and official economic data continues to be delayed, uncertainty over the metrics can grow. However, by looking at private data like unemployment insurance payments it can be inferred that continuing claims are still edging higher.
Notably, the ten-year treasury yield (TNX) is up 1.3 basis points after bouncing back above the 4.1% level last week.
The 30-year bond auction saw a slightly softer demand than previous auctions. The auction showed a high yield of 4.734%, and above, by a slim margin, from when issued at 4.730%.
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10/10/2025 7:12 AM | BIRTHDAY BREAK |
10/9/2025 1:25 PM | Shutdown Continues |
10/9/2025 9:53 AM | DOOM PORN DOESN’T DISTRACT INVESTORS |
10/8/2025 1:14 PM | FOMC Minutes in Focus |
10/8/2025 9:45 AM | DIFFERENT TYPES OF BOTTOM FISHING |
10/7/2025 1:34 PM | Taking a Breather |
10/7/2025 9:55 AM | LOTS OF CHASING BUT SOME BOTTOM FISHING TOO |
10/6/2025 1:36 PM | AMD deal powers Semiconductors |
10/6/2025 9:42 AM | ROTATION HAS BEGUN |
10/3/2025 1:30 PM | Midday Air Pocket |
10/3/2025 9:33 AM | MUSCLE MEMORY & AI FRENZY |
10/2/2025 1:34 PM | Searching for Direction |
10/2/2025 9:47 AM | A HEALTHY ROTATION |
10/1/2025 1:29 PM | Shutdown Resolve |
10/1/2025 9:45 AM | FINTECH MAKES ITS MOVE |
9/30/2025 1:47 PM | Shutdown Clock Ticks |
9/30/2025 9:52 AM | THANK YOU, SEPTEMBER |
9/29/2025 1:43 PM | Technology Turning Back Online |
9/29/2025 9:43 AM | Buy the Dip & March of the Federal Reserve Talking Heads |
9/26/2025 1:31 PM | Modest Gains |
9/26/2025 9:39 AM | GOOD NEWS HITS HARD |
9/25/2025 1:42 PM | Consolidation Phase |
9/25/2025 9:27 AM | Softness |
9/24/2025 1:29 PM | Mega Cap Profit Taking |
9/24/2025 9:35 AM | POWELL POKES |
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