Morning Commentary
Yesterday was the best session for Alphabet (GOOG/GOOGL) in years, which put a charge in media and arts inside Communication Services (XLC), but the session lacked oomph. Eight sectors were lower, including Energy (XLE), which saw hopes of higher crude oil prices dashed again - this time from OPEC.
Vibe Check
The Fear & Greed Index slipped into “neutral,” which is probably the right place. It’s a round-trip from where it was a month ago.
Market breadth was also lackluster, and judging from my commute (which was still relatively easy) and overall volume, I think some folks were still at the beach, but school is back in session today. Despite pops in Alphabet and Apple (AAPL), the NASDAQ lost altitude.
Market Breadth |
NYSE |
NASDAQ |
Advancers |
1,353 |
1,990 |
Decliners |
1,414 |
2,528 |
New Highs |
85 |
117 |
New Lows |
24 |
105 |
Up Volume |
1.29 billion |
3.33 billion |
Down Volume |
2.03 billion |
3.02 billion |
Suddenly, the hottest index is struggling. The NASDAQ-100 (NDX) bounced off its 50-day moving average, but not convincingly.
Meanwhile, components trading above their 50-day moving average have plunged.
Bluer than Beige
The Beige Book revealed a lackluster economy, with wages failing to keep pace with prices, but businesses were primarily unable to pass on price increases.
The Artificial Intelligence (AI) push is helping commercial real estate, but overall, there is a sense of blandness out there.
Today’s Session
This morning has seen an avalanche of economic data, and most have come in much differently from what was expected.
The needle hasn’t moved much for equities, but bond yields are coming down as the setting for tomorrow’s jobs report has become more intriguing.
Bolsters Fed cut narrative:
Jobless Claims
Initial jobless claims continue to edge higher and come in above consensus.
ADP Declines
Private sector payroll growth slows.
There is more data to crunch and contemplate.
The ten-year bond yield broke below 4.20%.
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10/20/2025 1:28 PM | Monday Strength |
10/20/2025 9:40 AM | CONSOLIDATING GAINS & ANXIETY |
10/17/2025 1:43 PM | Friday Zig Zag |
10/17/2025 9:51 AM | They Warned Us About Everything Else |
10/16/2025 1:33 PM | Another Intraday Reversal |
10/16/2025 9:30 AM | ENCOURAGING BUT NEED MORE |
10/15/2025 1:23 PM | Intraday Weakness |
10/15/2025 9:53 AM | STRONG “DOWN” DAY |
10/14/2025 1:27 PM | Intraday Recovery |
10/14/2025 9:45 AM | HO, HO, HO |
10/13/2025 1:42 PM | Fears Eased |
10/13/2025 9:49 AM | ROUGH BUT NOT HELLISH |
10/10/2025 1:48 PM | Chinese Trade Negotiations Reignite |
10/10/2025 10:05 AM | BIRTHDAY BREAK |
10/9/2025 1:25 PM | Shutdown Continues |
10/9/2025 9:53 AM | DOOM PORN DOESN’T DISTRACT INVESTORS |
10/8/2025 1:14 PM | FOMC Minutes in Focus |
10/8/2025 9:45 AM | DIFFERENT TYPES OF BOTTOM FISHING |
10/7/2025 1:34 PM | Taking a Breather |
10/7/2025 9:55 AM | LOTS OF CHASING BUT SOME BOTTOM FISHING TOO |
10/6/2025 1:36 PM | AMD deal powers Semiconductors |
10/6/2025 9:42 AM | ROTATION HAS BEGUN |
10/3/2025 1:30 PM | Midday Air Pocket |
10/3/2025 9:33 AM | MUSCLE MEMORY & AI FRENZY |
10/2/2025 1:34 PM | Searching for Direction |
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