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Morning Commentary

MOSTLY BLAND

By Charles Payne, CEO & Principal Analyst
9/4/2025 9:45 AM

Yesterday was the best session for Alphabet (GOOG/GOOGL) in years, which put a charge in media and arts inside Communication Services (XLC), but the session lacked oomph. Eight sectors were lower, including Energy (XLE), which saw hopes of higher crude oil prices dashed again - this time from OPEC.

Vibe Check

The Fear & Greed Index slipped into “neutral,” which is probably the right place. It’s a round-trip from where it was a month ago.

Market breadth was also lackluster, and judging from my commute (which was still relatively easy) and overall volume, I think some folks were still at the beach, but school is back in session today. Despite pops in Alphabet and Apple (AAPL), the NASDAQ lost altitude.

Market Breadth

NYSE

NASDAQ

Advancers

1,353

1,990

Decliners

1,414

2,528

New Highs

85

117

New Lows

24

105

Up Volume

1.29 billion

3.33 billion

Down Volume

2.03 billion

3.02 billion

Suddenly, the hottest index is struggling. The NASDAQ-100 (NDX) bounced off its 50-day moving average, but not convincingly.

Meanwhile, components trading above their 50-day moving average have plunged.

Bluer than Beige

The Beige Book revealed a lackluster economy, with wages failing to keep pace with prices, but businesses were primarily unable to pass on price increases.

The Artificial Intelligence (AI) push is helping commercial real estate, but overall, there is a sense of blandness out there.

Today’s Session

This morning has seen an avalanche of economic data, and most have come in much differently from what was expected.

The needle hasn’t moved much for equities, but bond yields are coming down as the setting for tomorrow’s jobs report has become more intriguing.

Bolsters Fed cut narrative:

Jobless Claims

Initial jobless claims continue to edge higher and come in above consensus.

ADP Declines

Private sector payroll growth slows.

There is more data to crunch and contemplate.

The ten-year bond yield broke below 4.20%.


 

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