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Afternoon Note

Persisting Weakness

By Karina Hernandez, Senior Research Analyst
8/20/2025 1:42 PM

Major indices are all moving lower as the rotation out of Technology (XLK) continues ahead of Fed Chair Powell’s speech on Friday in Jackson Hole. Investors are anxiously waiting for a message from the Fed Chairman endorsing a possible September rate-cut.

Interestingly, by next year, when there will be a new Fed chair, the market expects a rate cuts anywhere from 75 to 150 basis points.

Mega-cap stocks are experiencing a digestive phase, Tesla (TSLA) is declining the most out of the group.

Five sectors are still moving higher, with Energy (XLE) in the lead.  Technology (XLK) is the laggard and Consumer Discretionary (XLY) is the 2nd worst performer today.

The Fear & Greed Index is still in greed zone despite a poor start to the week.

Notably, investors moved around $6 billion into hedging ETF’s last week, the highest level since April.

Corporate credit spreads have fallen to their lowest level since 1998 ahead of the meeting.

Investors have become notably nervous as the market pulled back, reflecting a possible correction from the massive rally after April’s lows.  

CP's response is:

I cannot offer hope based on three down days - this is nothing. If you are going to invest long term, there will be rougher periods than this. I suggest you become a student of the market's history, salivate at the prospect of more pain, and hope to scoop up discounted stocks from novices and those with low risk tolerance. This is not being disrespectful of people - it's human nature, but it is misplaced in investing. -CP


Comments
Why is the Fed so political? I just read the minutes released at 2 PM where they say in so many words we are above the 2 percent target rate so a cut isn't guaranteed. However, looking at the December minutes, when rates were higher, they said they were moving cautiously by lowering rates 25 basis points. Nerveracking!

Mike Mayone on 8/20/2025 2:10:32 PM
 

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