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Morning Commentary

DOG DAYS OF HOPE & HUSTLE

By Charles Payne, CEO & Principal Analyst
8/18/2025 9:45 AM

The market stumbled into the weekend, but the weeks ahead are shaping up to be anything but dull.

In fact, with unique events happening right now, along with the structure of the rally, anyone who made plans to skip through the last couple weeks of August might miss the fireworks that make the ‘dog days’ of summer even hotter.

Bottom Fishing into the Weekend

The last shall be first from time to time in the stock market. Health Care (XLV) is beginning to sizzle, and there is increased tire-kicking in Real Estate (XLRE).

Communication Services (XLC) can’t be beaten.

Add to the Mix

Jackson Hole, Wyoming, at the end of the week should be very influential, although betting has shifted back to a 25-basis points (bps) cut instead of a 50-bps cut.

Interestingly, this year's theme is “Labor Markets in Transition,” which could have easily been “Labor Markets in Turmoil.”

I think something big is brewing on the Russia-Ukraine front.

And there is always the chance of a tariff deal announcement.

Today’s Session

Economic data will slowly begin to roll in, but it will largely be relegated to the background.

Earnings will be more important, particularly those from retailers. For now, the market is watching exogenous events which invite profit-taking. 


 

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