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Afternoon Note

Jobs Report Spook the Market

By Karina Hernandez, Senior Research Analyst
8/1/2025 1:48 PM

It’s a sea of red this afternoon, with major indices near the lows of the session. A steep loss in Amazon (AMZN), Apple (AAPL) reversing into negative territory, and a softer than expected jobs report are all adding pressure in today’s action.

The S&P 500 broke below its 20-day moving average this morning. Bulls need to reclaim the 626.50 level before the “all clear.” For now, they remain cautious.

The big news this morning is really old news, but that Main Street already knew – the labor market is in trouble. 

-73,000 jobs last month were below consensus, but the situation is much worse. 

I have been talking about this for a while, so I’m not surprised, but the massive revisions are shocking.

Jobs Report Revision

June just 14,000 from 144,000

May just 19,000 from 147,000

I think the market would have been lower today no matter what the jobs report number was for several reasons that CP will get into throughout the show at 2PM ET today. 

Two days after the FOMC meeting, now the odds for a September rate cut went from 37% to now closer to 80%. 

Fear and Greed index is now in the Neutral zone.

Only three sectors are in the green with Consumer Staples helped by solid quarter results from Kimberly-Clark (KMB), which saw its best quarterly volume growth in five years. Consumer Discretionary is the worst performing sector this afternoon as Amazon (AMZN) reported underwhelming growth in Amazon Web Services (AWS).

On the economic front, U.S. ISM Manufacturing for July is at 48, missing consensus of 49.5 and down from last month’s 49. Prices paid came at 64.8 while new orders stood at 47.1. Employment declined to 43.4 from 46.8.

We are not forcing the issue this afternoon. 


Comments
Can we say too late Jay Powell? To keep the Golden Age going we need a rate cut or I should say we needed it a while ago! This may end up being another buy the dip moment. I hope it proves to be.

Mike Mayone on 8/1/2025 2:04:50 PM
Charles, you have said it over and over again. The jobs report revisions are notoriously inaccurate. Here we are. August and September are going to be rough.

Howard Mencher on 8/1/2025 5:02:46 PM
 

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