Trade talks between the United States and China concluded with positive comments from both sides.
I’m not surprised if the talks have been candid, but it is also aimed at resolution.
One of the most critical moments of all of this happened without any fanfare or favorable media coverage.

Back in April, China replaced its top trade negotiator with Li Chenggang to de-escalate tensions.
According to one well-placed observer, the move was very abrupt and potentially disruptive given how quickly trade tensions had escalated.

“This is certainly a very abrupt and potentially disruptive change given how quickly trade tensions have escalated” Alfredo Montufar - Helu, head of the China Center at The Conference Board

That move interfered with the media narrative that China’s was in the driver’s seat and didn’t have to bend.

More news is dribbling out but it all points to getting down to brass tacks which is the stuff you want, and need, to get to the finish line.

There will be some bluster for the folks keeping score at home.

There will be always naysayers, whining and predicting doom and gloom.  The fear-mongering campaign is still being felt. It was underscored this morning by the disparity of mentions of tariffs and the Big Beautiful Bill.

Tariffs Consumers’ write-in responses showed that tariffs remained topic on mind and was mostly associated with concerns that they would lead to higher prices.   The OBBBA …the bill and its implications were relatively low on the list of themes that consumers were focused in July.

The Conference Board

We should note that Consumer Confidence came in better than expected as future expectations made a noticeable rebound (folks over 35 and Republicans are moving the needle).

Yesterday, the WSJ ran an article that seem to suggest the TACO trade, or that Trump always chickens out, provides cover for Wall Street’s hysteria.

Perhaps it is upsetting the establishment, even more, and has the stock market rallying, especially in retail names.

When penny stocks, stocks with sky high valuation metrics, and unprofitable stocks surge it’s not because Main Street is feeling pessimistic.

Apparently, the possibility of more expensive refrigerators is not enough to stop people from investing in stocks, and that Wall Street hates.

As for the US and China economic dynamic.

We know President Trump wants China to open its markets to US companies and not just those giants multinational who are willing to give away trade secrets and look the other way on human rights violations.

On that score, two stories caught my eye this morning.

Apple (AAPL) is closing a China location for the first time ever.

Meanwhile, Luckin Coffee (LKNCY) has opened its first two stores in the US.  These Manhattan locations are app-only for fast pick up.

If Luckin sounds familiar, it should. US investors took a bath on the stock when it was revealed the company was cooking the books.

I suspect the company expects bygones to be bygones, and expects a meteoric growth in America as they labeled the village store “00002.”

As for the market – its steady as she goes with lots of profit-taking.

Other Economic Data

Job openings fell by 275,000 to 7.437M in June, which missed expectations of 7.55M openings.

Notable Changes:

• Accommodation and food services fell by 308,000
• Health care and social assistance lost 244,000
• Finance and insurance declined by 142,000
• Retail trade increased 190,000
• Information rose by 67,000

The Dallas Fed Services index surged 6.4 points to 2 in July.

Notable points:

• Revenue index rose 10.4 points to 6.3
• Employment increased 4 points to 2.8
• Wages advanced by 15.6 points to 13.4

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