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Morning Commentary

ANOTHER RECORD WITH THE SAME OLD SCRIPT

By Charles Payne, CEO & Principal Analyst
7/25/2025 9:47 AM

The big dogs minus Tesla (TSLA) showed up yesterday to mask what was a listless and sloppy session.  A boilerplate summer session.

UnitedHealth Group (UNH) weighed down the Health Care (XLV) Sector, but five of the top ten gainers came from the industry. Bringing up the rear, the Consumer Discretionary (XLY) Sector was also pressured by the decline in Chipotle (CMG). There was a time when TSLA and CMG were up every day.  Now, both must re-prove themselves.

It’s the “Mag Seven” world, after all. Those big boxes and rectangles were mostly green yesterday, as small-caps were hammered.

A great chart from Jurrien Timmer underscores the fact that this is still a “Mag Seven” world. Meanwhile, I keep rooting for small-caps like that kid at the end of the bench in pee-wee football.

In the Zone

Wall Street mavens tend to assume the market is frothy and sentiment wildly bullish when a streak of new highs is being established, but that’s not necessarily the case. Right now, retail bullish sentiment is retreating.  I think it's smart to become more cautious but follow their money, not their answers to surveys.

Today’s Session

Markets are off to a quiet start, following a week when the S&P 500 and Nasdaq reached new record highs. Intel (INTC) missed earnings expectations, but the broader market is mute.

Today, the commodity roles seem to be reversing, with metals declining, while oil and natural gas are advancing.

Notably, the Ten-Year Treasury Yield (TNX) retook its 200 MA this week, and is now testing the 50 MA.


 

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