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Morning Commentary

FEAR OF MISSING OUT IS CREEPING IN

By Charles Payne, CEO & Principal Analyst
7/1/2025 9:45 AM

It’s clear the pep in one’s step is back for the stock market. Greed is at a five-week high as new market highs lure more folks off the fence.

The market love continues to favor large-caps across the board.

New Highs Beget New Highs

Eight of the eleven sectors finished higher, with Technology (XLK) leading the way, followed by Financials (XLF).

One of the first lessons I learned on the Street is that new market highs beget new market highs. Check out the dates on the best quarters in history below.

Seasonality

July is usually a good month for the S&P 500…

…And a brilliant month for the NASDAQ Composite.

The Street is beginning to believe Powell could be pressured into cutting rates. There is no doubt Arthur Burns is glad there wasn’t social media when he was Fed chair.

Today’s Data

Today’s Session

The market is shifting into holiday mode with just one and a half trading days left this week.

When things move slower, sobriety sets in, and the natural inclination is to look for what's wrong.

Right now, one of the significant issues is valuations.  

There is no doubt that the S&P 500 at 22 times earnings is historically expensive, and yet, to a large degree, certain stocks should be afforded with higher valuations. They have few peers from the past, except monopolies concerning market share, and even fewer concerning innovation. 

Market breadth is also a bone of contention.


 

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