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Morning Commentary

CHIPS MOMENTUM CONTINUES

By Charles Payne, CEO & Principal Analyst
6/26/2025 9:51 AM

Well, you don’t see it often, but the market and the S&P 500 (SPX) finished unchanged at 0.00% yesterday. The internals were ugly, as only two sectors edged higher, but one was Technology (XLK), and as we all know, sometimes that’s all you need.

Super Micro Computer Inc (SMCI) led the pack as its value proposition evolved quickly (open in Hotline Model Portfolio).

Factors of the Sea of Red

A more granular look at the session shows how lopsided it was, as growth was the only deeper green on the screen across 21 extended factors.

For now, the S&P 500 keeps its nose pressed against the glass like a child looking through the window of the local doughnut shop.

The bias remains to the upside.

Small-Caps Stumble

It’s been a few years now, and fewer Wall Street experts are calling for small-caps to rock, as a result it has collapsed in positioning.

We are routinely asked and will continue to monitor.  A close above the 200-day moving average for the iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) could spark a trading rally.

Watch Bond Yields

The ten-year treasury yield (TNX) continues to drift and that’s great news for the economy and stock market.                                                            

Today’s Session

Economic data out this morning is coming in better than expected, but the market is quiet, except for the winners that continue to display evolving narratives. They are changing Wall Street doubters to believers. Speaking of doubters, those that have attempted to sabotage the mood of investors and bet big against America, they are now only clinging to a weaker US Dollar.

Interestingly, Scott Bessent wanted the dollar to come down for a variety of reasons.

Initial jobless claims were 236,000, compared to the consensus of 244,000, and last week at 246,000.

Durable goods orders surged 16.4% in May caused by a 48.3% leap in transportation equipment.  Excluding transportation, new orders climbed 0.5%.


 

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