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Morning Commentary

THE TRUMP FOREIGN POLICY DOCTRINE EMERGES

By Charles Payne, CEO & Principal Analyst
5/16/2025 9:50 AM

With an avalanche of data and a market that had made a fantastic move quickly, the stage was set for a down session yesterday. A less than 1% drawdown would have been seen as innocuous and cathartic.

The market started lower then shifted higher, and while additional buyers couldn’t be wooed from the sidelines, the S&P 500 (SPX) finished in the green.

Spreading Wealth

Upside bias is woven into the market fabric weeks after conventional wisdom predicted a fate worse than death.

Some of the best-known names on the Street are still in that camp, but I’m not sure if it's just their egos or somehow, they’ve crunched the numbers and decided fighting back against unfair trade deals would be the death knell for ‘American Exceptionalism.’

On that note, I wonder what these folks calling for annihilation think about President Trump’s Middle East tour.

It was remarkable. The energy, the deals, the reshaping of America’s intention from nation-building to nation-building under their auspices, timelines, and belief systems.

That is not the decline of ‘American Exceptionalism’ but the start of a second American Century with shared prosperity abroad and at home.

I love not using U.S. tax dollars and the treasures of America’s young people to dominate and exert influence.

Broadening Rally

Ten of eleven sectors were higher in the session, but there was a cautious tone, as defensive sectors led the charge.

Before the index moved into positive territory, I saw Consumer Staples’ (XLP) names turn higher first. Perhaps this was triggered by the Retail Sales report, which saw Consumer Discretionary (XLY) components hit hard.

Goods imported from China couldn’t get any takers, even for small price hikes.

Real Estate (XLRE) caught a bid, even after a subpar Home Builder Sentiment Index. The ten-year yield was lower, which was encouraging.

Utilities (XLU) were the best-performing sector. It’s a sweet spot, with high dividend yields and a ride on the data center boom.

Today’s Session

I’m trying to figure out what’s happening with global bond yields, rocketing higher – especially Japan which just posted a -0.7% first quarter GDP decline.

Also watching the Qs which are on a monster tear.

The rally is broadening, including non-household names in Technology (XLK).


Comments
Powell seems to think it's fine to hold restrictive rates even though the short end of the yield curve is screwed up. That ripples through to the 10 year and thereby to mortgage rates. And that is cracking the housing market. House construction has a big multiplier so weakness there is concerning. Okay to cut 50 bps right before the election but no help for the Trump agenda. Outrageous if the Fed doesn't cut in June. (Appreciate all you do!)

August Belmont on 5/16/2025 10:36:19 AM
Thanks for all you do

Terrence Breary on 5/16/2025 2:18:03 PM
 

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