Afternoon Note
We are loving the action of the market, which reversed from red to green. At the start of the session, major indices started in red after Fed Powell warned that inflation could be more volatile in the years ahead.
Notably, the intra-day reversal is being led by stocks outside the Magnificent Seven, which are overall lagging indices.
The only sectors marginally in the red are Consumer Discretionary (XLY) and Energy (XLE). Consumer Staples (XLP) is leading the way up, followed by Utilities (XLU).
The Ten-Year yield fell 7.7 basis points to 4.45%, following the better-than-expected PPI report.
The NAHB Housing Market Index fell 6 points in May to 34, missing estimates of 40. The main contributing factor was Current Sales, which fell 8 points to 37. Notably, 34% of builders cut home prices in May as opposed to 29% in April, with the average price reduction being 5%.
Industrial production for the month of April was unchanged, missing consensus of +0.1%. Factory production saw its first decline in six months, dropping by 0.4%.
The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow estimate for Q2 has jumped to 2.5%, a slight increase from the previous forecast of 2.3%. This suggests steady momentum that could impact the Fed policy decision in the near term.
Comments |
On inflation, Powell has a 50% chance of being right. But then he wasn't to clear on the time frame of his prediction. A prediction that J. Powell will die in the years ahead would be a sure thing. P. Krueger on 5/15/2025 1:44:36 PM |
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