Afternoon Note

I searched this morning for the right word to explain recent market action and I settled on “apprehension,” although trepidation came in close second.
This is what apprehension looks like. One day up then one day down as has been the case since September 24th.
The market has been locked in the old two-step, up one day and down the next, but that streak could be broken today.
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Following the Bouncing Ball |
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Oct 9, 2024 |
5,747.52 |
Down |
|
Oct 8, 2024 |
5,751.13 |
Up |
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Oct 7, 2024 |
5,695.94 |
Down |
|
Oct 4, 2024 |
5,751.07 |
Up |
|
Oct 3, 2024 |
5,699.94 |
Down |
|
Oct 2, 2024 |
5,709.54 |
Up |
|
Oct 1, 2024 |
5,708.75 |
Down |
|
Sep 30, 2024 |
5,762.48 |
Up |
|
Sep 27, 2024 |
5,738.17 |
Down |
|
Sep 26, 2024 |
5,745.37 |
Up |
|
Sep 25, 2024 |
5,722.26 |
Down |
|
Sep 24, 2024 |
5,732.93 |
Up |
|
Sep 23, 2024 |
5,718.57 |
Up |
Rich People Spending Money
The market opened lower and is powering higher now. One thing we know is: new highs beget new highs.
Meanwhile, investors are cashing in on the defensive rally. I had a hunch they would this week.

The biggest winners add credence to the notion that rich people are keeping the economy afloat. This morning, Citigroup hiked their targets on cruise ship operators, including Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. (NCLH). They raised NCLH's rating from Neutral to Buy and increased their price target from $20 to $30.
It’s rare to see a 50% target hike, it is also an admission they had gotten it wrong.
Citigroup upgrades Norwegian Cruise Line (NCLH) to Buy from Neutral, raises price target to $30 from $20.
Citigroup adjusts Carnival (CCL) price target to $28 from $25, maintains buy rating.
Citigroup adjusts Royal Caribbean (RCL) price target to $253 from $204, maintains buy rating.

Finally, today’s action also suggests nobody is expecting any negative surprises with tomorrow’s CPI report.
| Tweet |
| 9/16/2026 1:19 PM | Setting the Stage |
| 9/16/2026 9:37 AM | WILL WARSH BLINK? |
| 9/15/2026 1:39 PM | Tough Tuesday |
| 9/15/2026 9:39 AM | DOOMSDAY POSTPONED |
| 9/14/2026 1:23 PM | AI Slowdown, Yields Surge |
| 9/14/2026 9:56 AM | AI DOOM DOMINATED THE WEEKEND |
| 9/11/2026 1:23 PM | Staging a Rebound |
| 9/11/2026 9:41 AM | Monumental Tech Momentum Decline |
| 9/10/2026 1:20 PM | Choppy Action |
| 9/10/2026 9:32 AM | CALLING BESSENT'S BLUSTER |
| 9/9/2026 1:34 PM | Busy Wednesday |
| 9/9/2026 9:35 AM | Al KILLER TRADE IS BACK |
| 9/8/2026 1:09 PM | Mixed Start to the Week |
| 9/8/2026 9:21 AM | SHORT WEEK BUT LONG WAIT FOR CPI |
| 9/4/2026 1:28 PM | Taking Some Momentum Out |
| 9/4/2026 9:34 AM | THE STAGE IS SET |
| 9/3/2026 12:59 PM | Yields Inch Lower |
| 9/3/2026 9:29 AM | IS SMART MONEY BUYING? |
| 9/2/2026 1:37 PM | Wednesday Winds Back |
| 9/2/2026 9:15 AM | MARKET EDGING TOWARD PANIC |
| 9/1/2026 1:24 PM | Yields and Oil Weigh on Stocks |
| 9/1/2026 9:35 AM | STEALTH FISHING IN BIG NAMES |
| 8/31/2026 1:22 PM | Monday’s Market |
| 8/31/2026 9:33 AM | ASSESSING WARSH – DID SOMEONE SAY THE BAND IS GETTING BACK TOGETHER? |
| 8/28/2026 1:39 PM | Jackson Hole Day |
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