Morning Commentary
Conventional wisdom said the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) would deliver a “hawkish” 25 basis points (bps) rate cut yesterday, but with a hard line in the sand on any future cuts. Considering the changes made to the summary of the economic projections, it felt more like a “dovish” cut and a victory lap. There were three dissenters as the Fed lurches more openly into the political realm. The market loved the news, and loved Fed Chair Jay Powell’s tone, and understands this is an accommodative Fed that’s even going to start asset purchases real soon.

The market is within spitting distance of the all-time high, and has meandered long enough that a breakout would create urgency for all the fence sitters and doubters. This is double top territory, so the inability to make new highs before the weekend could be seen as a yellow flag.

Market breadth was impressive, to be sure, although volume was lighter than I expected.
|
Market Breadth |
NYSE |
NASDAQ |
|
Advancers |
2,030 |
3,167 |
|
Decliners |
739 |
1,577 |
|
New Highs |
175 |
293 |
|
New Lows |
19 |
103 |
|
Up Volume |
2.77 billion |
3.86 billion |
|
Down Volume |
1.29 billion |
2.98 billion |
Green Acres
When every swath of the factors board is green, it's not just a good sign; it’s also hard to ignore. Small and midcap stocks continue their blistering pace.

Breakout
The iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) made an impressive breakout and has a ton of wind in its sails.

The Fear & Greed Index is still stuck in “fear,” but there was mostly joy at the closing bell. We’ll see what the follow-through is today, but I can tell you holiday cheer is in the air. Turns out Powell decided not to be the Grinch this Christmas.

Today’s Session

The good vibes from the Fed were drowned out this morning by Oracle’s (ORCL) results.
Oracle (ORCL) is not the perfect proxy for AI. It’s something of a moot point as the investment opportunities from the Fourth Industrial Revolution are spreading throughout the economy, and stock market.
| Comments |
| Mr. Payne Thanks for your daily column !! I read it every morning & appreciate the work you do for us retail investors ! I agree with you that this AI cycle is nothing like the DOT-COM bubble, real money & productivity in AI, but I would love to here thoughts on the other side; Cracks in labor market, Volatile Bond market, Inverted yield curve that want normalize, Strtched valuations , Sticky inflation refusing to roll over. All of this with very light volume NO conviction in either direction. AI is strong but the underneath feels fragile, would love too hear how you balance the OPPORTUNITY with the RISKS . THANKS again for all you do Mike Mike on 12/11/2025 7:41:25 AM |
| Jingle Bells, Jingle Bells, Jingle all the way to a Santa Claus rally! Charles you were absolutely fantastic on Outnumbered. Mike Mayone on 12/11/2025 12:37:38 PM |
| Tweet |
| 1/27/2026 1:28 PM | Split Session |
| 1/27/2026 9:39 AM | IT'S A CARTOON WORLD |
| 1/26/2026 12:47 PM | Money Stays in The Market |
| 1/26/2026 9:35 AM | BIG NAMES IN EARNINGS BATTER’S BOX |
| 1/23/2026 1:12 PM | Interesting Session |
| 1/23/2026 9:41 AM | MARKET EDGES HIGHER |
| 1/22/2026 1:54 PM | Small Caps Continue Leading The Charge |
| 1/22/2026 9:41 AM | MARKET TURNS GREEN ON GREENLAND |
| 1/21/2026 1:12 PM | Davos Digest |
| 1/21/2026 9:49 AM | TRUMP & THE NEW WORLD ORDER |
| 1/20/2026 1:53 PM | Risk-Off Slide |
| 1/20/2026 9:29 AM | D-DAY AT DAVOS |
| 1/16/2026 1:27 PM | Friday Flux |
| 1/16/2026 10:01 AM | RISING TIDE |
| 1/15/2026 1:38 PM | AI Hopes Boost The Market |
| 1/15/2026 9:37 AM | AN UGLY BUT STRONG SESSION |
| 1/14/2026 1:34 PM | Mixed Midweek Market Session |
| 1/14/2026 9:38 AM | A SO-SO START TO EARNINGS SEASON |
| 1/13/2026 1:47 PM | Mixed Afternoon |
| 1/13/2026 9:43 AM | THEY LIKE OUR BONDS, STILL |
| 1/12/2026 1:42 PM | Market Resolve |
| 1/12/2026 9:54 AM | STRONG FIRST WEEK BODES WELL FOR 2026 |
| 1/9/2026 1:30 PM | Broad Strength |
| 1/9/2026 9:42 AM | DC DRIVING NARRATIVES |
| 1/8/2026 1:42 PM | Cyclical Rally Resumes |
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