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Afternoon Note

Is Santa Coming?

By John Jean, Research Analyst
12/19/2025 1:40 PM

Major indices are all in the green, with the S&P 500 continuing to bounce off its 50-day moving average.

Is it time for the Santa rally? History has guided gains to favor from now through year end. Historically, stocks only fell eight times over this period in the last 25 years.

Magnificent seven names are mostly moving higher. Nvidia (NVDA) is in the lead after the US launched a formal review to enable H200 sales to China and the company received approval for their investment in Intel (INTC).

Eight sectors are heading higher, with Technology (XLK) in the lead, getting a boost from AI plays and Oracle (ORCL). Meanwhile, the “safe haven” sector of Consumer Staples (XLP) is lagging.

The Trump administration is reportedly planning to announce new deals with pharmaceutical companies later today, to further reduce the cost of medicines.

Yesterday afternoon, Trump signed the American Space Superiority executive order aimed at asserting U.S. leadership and dominance in space exploration, national security, and commercial activities. The plan includes accelerating the return of astronauts to the moon by 2028, via the Artemis program, and establishing an initial lunar outpost by 2030. This is helping space stocks lift off in today’s session.

Another executive order signed late last afternoon was to expedite the reclassification of marijuana to schedule 3 from schedule 1.

Economic Data

Existing home sales rose 0.5% M/M to an annualized 4.13M in November and missed estimates of 4.2M. This marks the 3rd consecutive increase and the highest level in the past 9 months.

Michigan consumer sentiment was revised slightly lower to 52.9 from 53.3 for December. Current conditions were revised down to 50.4 from 50.7, while the expectations gauge were also revised lower to 54.6 from 55. The 5-year inflation expectation stayed steady at 3.2%, but the year ahead inflation expectations were revised to 4.2% from 4.1%.

Week Ahead

Next week, Charles will be taking a well-deserved vacation. As a result, there will be no early edition Hotline reports, only the regular morning and afternoon notes at the normal times.

As a reminder, the market will have an early closing at 1 PM EST on Christmas Eve and will closed on Thursday for Christmas. Wednesday will only have a morning report and there will be no reports on Thursday.

Wishing everyone a great weekend!


 

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