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Morning Commentary

DEAR SANTA

By Charles Payne, CEO & Principal Analyst
12/19/2025 9:38 AM

It was a good day for the market yesterday, but not a great one, despite the positive inflation news.  Growth names powered the S&P 500 (SPX) higher, but the session felt more like a flop.

Of course, the experts who underestimated the Consumer Price Index (CPI) spent all day throwing cold water on it, but the bottom line is their end-of-the-world tariff doom-and-gloom never came close to the worst-case scenario.

So, it was a little disappointing that the market didn’t react with more vigor.

Moreover, cyclical stocks and sectors struggled and, for the most part, finished in the red.  I’d love to see a broad-based rally next year, but every time they set the rally, it doesn’t happen. It reminds me of the Looney Tunes character, Michigan J. Frog.

Large-cap growth is the place to be, and it's been the place to be for a long time.

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Leaderboard

We knew Technology (XLK) names would power higher after Micron Technology’s (MU) monumental earnings report, but Utilities (XLU) also powered higher after a record power grid auction.

Spinning Wheels

The S&P 500 is tinkering around with the 50-day moving average but holding. What will propel this market to be higher?

Market breadth was fine, but more new lows than new highs on the NASDAQ Composite is a reminder that high-Beta names can be crushers when they go the other way.

Market Breadth

NYSE

NASDAQ

Advancers

1,737

2,968

Decliners

1,028

1,703

New Highs

99

121

New Lows

38

220

Up Volume

2.34 billion

4.02 billion

Down Volume

1.5 billion

2.76 billion

Santa Might Still Show

The market has never gone three years in a row without a Santa Claus Rally – talk about a lump of coal.

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Today’s Session

Last night, the WSJ reported that OpenAI is now valued at $830 billion after the latest funding round. The news is helping many of the names in the OpenAI universe.

One of those names is Oracle (ORCL), which has been beaten down over concerns about its business model and ability to meet its debt obligations. Additionally, it has received another dose of good news about its role in the new TikTok deal.

There have been a ton of upgrades to Technology (XLK) and Communication Services (XLC) stocks. The market will open slightly higher, but this market must break out to really “break out”.


 

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