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Afternoon Note

Fed on Deck

By Karina Hernandez, Senior Research Analyst
12/9/2025 1:27 PM

Major indices are mostly edging higher as investors await the Fed rate cut decision tomorrow and economic data showed job openings unexpectedly ticked higher (more below).

Small caps are also strong today with the Russell 2000 reaching an all-time high.

So far, mega cap names are mostly moving higher, with Tesla (TSLA) in the lead. A pocket of green is seen in asset management, with many private equity names coming back online after trouble earlier in the year with the First Brands bankruptcy.

Six sectors are in the green, with Energy (XLE) in the lead and being led higher by Exxon Mobil (XOM) after they raised their long-term earnings and free cash flow targets. On the flip side, Health Care (XLV) is the laggard as the sector sees some profit taking.

Economic Data

October’s JOLTS report saw job openings rise by 12K M/M to 7.67M. Trade, transportation, and utilities saw a notable 239K rise in openings, while professional and business services saw a 114K fall.

The JOLTS report showed the number of quits falling 187K M/M to 2.941M in October. This marks the lowest level since August of 2020. Accommodation and food services quits fell by 136k, while health care and social assistance also saw quits fall by 114K.

The Street expects a 25 bps rate cut tomorrow, with Kalshi odds at 95%, and nearly all major banks calling for the same. The rate cut is priced in, but the Fed is expected to temper expectations for aggressive 2026 easing.


 

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