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Morning Commentary

AN UNEASY PAUSE †††

By Charles Payne, CEO & Principal Analyst
3/15/2024 9:33 AM

The market was doomed out of the gate, but considering only two out of eleven sectors finished higher, it’s a surprise the index wasn’t much lower. Interestingly, investors bottom-fished wayward members of the ‘Mag Seven.’

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S&P 500 Map

Market Breadth

Yesterday’s session was decidedly bearish, with significantly more decliners than advancers. On the NASDAQ Composite, there were more new lows than new highs.

Market Breadth

NYSE

NASDAQ

Advancers

600

1,053

Decliners

2,246

3,217

New Highs

138

95

New Lows

59

196

Up Volume

829.63 million

1.34 billion

Down Volume

3.75 billion

4.11 billion

Bond Yields Spike

I believe the Street is sleeping on the bond market. The general assumption is bonds are an easy trade as the Fed returns to an accommodative posture.

I’m not convinced. The ten-year yield above 4.3% will trigger wide angst, and a yield above 4.5% could trigger panic.

Chart

Right now, this can be chalked up as an overdue pause that refreshes. Right now!

Today’s Session

It’s a quiet morning and it feels like the market is looking around for something to stop the recent selling from morphing into something more dramatic.

The key economic data out this morning continues to paint an economy where high prices are persistent and impactful.

The Empire Fed Manufacturing report came in -20.9 from -2.4 in February and against the Wall Street consensus of -7.0.  Key components plunged and prices remained elevated.

Funds continue to flow into equities and that’s a good sign.

Ides of March

It’s the Ides of March, which became infamous for the assassination of Julius Caesar, but it was also the deadline for Romans to pay debts.

Today is also the 52nd anniversary of what many critics consider the greatest movie in history. Somehow the Ides of March and The Godfather seem appropriate considering that US government debt will eventually derail the nation.

 


 

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