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Morning Commentary

STRONG START TO A SHORTENED TRADING WEEK

By Karina Hernandez, Senior Research Analyst
12/23/2025 9:26 AM

The first session of the Christmas week saw decent gains on broad strength. Ten sectors finished higher, with four advancing 1% or further.

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Materials (XLB) was the best performer, as metal commodity prices rose. Gold and Silver both reached new records, while Platinum hit a 17-year high and Palladium hit a 3-year high.

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Market breadth was impressive with lighter volume, as expected.

Growth was the leader across the board with strong action in mid-cap names.

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Not surprisingly, big tech is getting bigger with the top 10 largest stocks accounting for 40% of the S&P 500 market cap.

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The so-called fear-index, VIX, declined below 15, supporting a bullish pattern breakout environment. Historically, the last 8 times this happened, the S&P 500 advanced higher a month later.

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Today’s Session

Futures are looking to open under moderate pressure. Metals are leading the gains in commodity prices this morning.

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Consumers were spending this holiday season.  According to Visa’s (V) US holiday spending report, retail spending rose 4.2% YoY, with 73% in physical stores and 27% online. Online sales rose by 7.8% YoY, which got a boost from early season promotions. Electronics grew 5.8% YoY and were the top holiday category.

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On the economic front, it was a solid third-quarter, with the first read on GDP up 4.3% qup 4.3% q/q with exports rising to 8.8% and personal consumption up 3.5%.  Government consumption moved up to 2.2%, but business investments pulled back to 2.8%.

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The ADP preliminary estimates showed employers added an average of 11,500 jobs per week in the 4 weeks preceding December 6th. It was down from 17,500 in the prior period.

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