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Morning Commentary

The Market’s Gift: New Heights

By John Jean, Research Analyst
12/26/2025 9:30 AM

Wednesday’s holiday shortened trading session saw the S&P 500 (SPX) edge out to a new all-time high, with the Santa Clause Rally looking to add further momentum.

All, but one, sectors closed in the green, led higher by Consumer Staples (XLP) and Real Estate (XLRE). The strength in Consumer Staples was driven in large part by discount stores, while Real Estate benefited from a 3-basis point drop in yields to 4.14%.  Meanwhile, Energy (XLE) was the only sector in the red, as natural gas prices fell on warmer eastern weather forecasts.

Notably, Consumer Discretionary (XLY) was led higher by Nike (NKE) after reports of Tim Cook doubling his stake in the company, following the recent drop in price post-earnings.

The S&P 500 is entering into what is historically the lowest volume period of the year, as it looks to close out 2025, which is up 17.86% year to date.

Today’s Session

Futures are mostly marginally lower, with the exception of the Nasdaq.

Today tends to be the 2nd most bullish day of the year, with an average gain of 0.49%, and 81% of prior dates trading positively.

This morning, China has issued sanctions to 20 US defense firms and several US individuals over US arm sales to Taiwan.

In other news, while China’s rare earth magnet exports have rebounded from the April lows, it fell by 11% M/M in November, according to Chinese Customs data.


 

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