Morning Commentary
Yesterday’s session had a summer-like feel with tight ebbs and flows and a lack of conviction on either side of the trade. Five sectors edged higher, led by Energy (XLE).
Amazing developments on the miracle fat loss drug front sparked buying after the initial sell-off.
Inflation Expectations from the NY Fed saw one-year ahead ease to 3.6% from 3.7% (it was the fifth consecutive monthly decline).
Today, it's all about the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, which is expected to decline to 3.4% from 3.7% and the Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) at 4.2% from 4.1%.
The Cleveland Fed Nowcast sees a 3.3% headline and a 4.2% Core CPI from a year ago.
The Street is looking for a 0.3% Core CPI from a month ago.
Today’s number is big, but other major data releases will impact the market this week as well.
Portfolio Approach
We are adding a new position in Consumer Discretionary in our Hotline Model Portfolio this morning. If you are not a current subscriber to our Premium Hotline Service, contact your account representative or email Info@wstreet.com to get started today.
Today’s Session
CPI M/M |
Actual |
Consensus |
October |
Headline |
0.0% |
0.1% |
0.4% |
Core |
0.2% |
0.3% |
0.3% |
CPI Y/Y |
Actual |
Consensus |
October |
Headline |
3.2% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
Core |
4.0% |
4.1% |
4.1% |
Inflation resumed its downward trend last month.
Super Core
Jay Powell’s favorite gauge kicks out housing from core services.
Market Reaction
Bond yields are imploding.
Equity futures popped.
I’m excited because we have been positioning. But these numbers are still high, and too much for the average household. The news rekindles hopes for a soft landing.
From our point of view, as investors, this was a good number, and it could spark some panic-buying.
Tweet |
7/18/2025 1:14 PM | Consumer Tariff Worries Subside |
7/18/2025 9:45 AM | America is in Play |
7/17/2025 1:27 PM | Extreme Greed Resumes |
7/17/2025 10:15 AM | A Fundamental Move |
7/16/2025 1:39 PM | Market Gyrations |
7/16/2025 9:44 AM | THE MAG ONE (NVDA) |
7/15/2025 1:35 PM | Semis Rise & Banks Slide |
7/15/2025 10:13 AM | THE CURIOUS CASE |
7/14/2025 1:32 PM | Decisive Week |
7/14/2025 9:32 AM | GET READY! |
7/11/2025 1:45 PM | Facing Pressure |
7/11/2025 9:48 AM | CLEAR FOR TAKEOFF |
7/10/2025 1:53 PM | Small Caps Rally |
7/10/2025 9:56 AM | ENOUGH ZEN TO SHARE |
7/9/2025 1:32 PM | NVDA New Milestone |
7/9/2025 9:46 AM | PASSING THE BATON |
7/8/2025 1:33 PM | Seesaw Session |
7/8/2025 9:55 AM | MORE SUMMER BLAHS THAN FEAR OF MYANMAR'S TARIFF |
7/7/2025 1:27 PM | Trade Talks and Profit Taking |
7/7/2025 9:51 AM | LOVING MOOD |
7/3/2025 9:45 AM | NICE & STEADY AS SEMIS CONTINUE TO CHIP IN |
7/2/2025 1:44 PM | Materials' Strength Continues |
7/2/2025 9:38 AM | BARNBURNER |
7/1/2025 1:29 PM | Rotation |
7/1/2025 9:45 AM | FEAR OF MISSING OUT IS CREEPING IN |
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