Yesterday was a good session. It had that lazy summer feel but also remained determined to undermine all the calls for the party to end. But the fact that defensive names led the way underscores a sense of caution.

A part of that caution could be the sense the ‘pop’ is extended. At this point, I’m anxiously waiting for some of the steam to come off the move, just to see if some key former resistance points can hold up and become support. Maybe the S&P 500 pulling back to fill that gap at 4,150, and then hopefully holding.

We are watching more since inflation could become an issue in the rearview. Note: it’s going to be historically high for some time, but more than likely, we’ve peaked.

Crude Realities

That oversold bounce in crude oil hit a speedbump when China’s central bank (PBOC) announced it was cutting interest rates, admitting their economy needs a boost. The good news is after filling the gap (circle), buyers materialized to lift the Energy (XLE) sector off the session low.

Today, we get a chance to glimpse into the condition of American consumers. But, of course, Walmart (WMT) will be most interesting, considering they tossed out the kitchen sink twice this year – there should be no more surprises. Right?

Portfolio Approach

We took added a position in Technology yesterday in our Hotline model portfolio.

Today’s Session

Walmart (WMT) beat and okay guidance is keeping the market buoyant and yet it has added fuel to the recession crisis.  Unsurprisingly, more middle- and upper-income shoppers are hitting the store for grocery, taking their share again.

Product	Walmart	Wholefoods
Whole milk	$3.52	$4.69
Eggs	$2.55	$3.79
White Bread	$0.93	NA*
Grey Poupon	$2.98	$4.79

Housing off the Boil?

But then the shocker: July housing starts imploded.

Down 9.6% from June as annualized rate of 1.446 million units lowest since February of 2021 and significantly below consensus of 1.54 million or -2.5%

• NE +65.5%
• MW -33.8%
• SO -18.7%
• WE -2.7%

Single family housing down to 916,000 annualized pace which is the lowest since June 2020.

The market has been feasting on weak starts but let’s play this close to the vest.

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