Morning Commentary
I’m still musing about that session on Friday that was supposed to be a disaster. It wasn’t. But it was more defensive, and cyclicals also came to life.

Volume was light, but there were more new highs than lows on the NASDAQ – great sign.
Small Caps Roar
It’s been a good earnings season for small caps, which have begun to catch bids in part because they were so oversold. The S&P 600 Index is changing hands at a forward PE of 12.3%. The chart is very compelling but runs into wall of resistance that takes it to the shadow of the 200-day moving average.


In June, less than 15% of the SML were trading above their 100-day moving average. Now, the number is above 43, but there is a lot more room on the upside.

Meanwhile, the ten- and two-year yield curve inverted to -0.497%, which screams recession.

Today’s Session
The market was building a lot of steam heading into the open when Nvidia (NVDA) issued a big earning warning. That knocked some of the wind out of the move.
| Tweet |
| 12/26/2025 12:47 PM | Slow Session |
| 12/26/2025 9:30 AM | The Market’s Gift: New Heights |
| 12/24/2025 9:10 AM | HO HO HO, MERRY CHRISTMAS |
| 12/23/2025 1:35 PM | Just In Time For Santa |
| 12/23/2025 9:26 AM | STRONG START TO A SHORTENED TRADING WEEK |
| 12/22/2025 1:37 PM | Broad Strength |
| 12/22/2025 9:26 AM | GETTING READY FOR THE YEAR-END |
| 12/19/2025 1:40 PM | Is Santa Coming? |
| 12/19/2025 9:38 AM | DEAR SANTA |
| 12/18/2025 1:44 PM | Markets Enthusiastic |
| 12/18/2025 9:28 AM | ORACLE CONTINUES TO HAUNT THE AI TRADE |
| 12/17/2025 1:23 PM | Technology Slides |
| 12/17/2025 9:40 AM | SPRING LOADED |
| 12/16/2025 1:44 PM | Drifting Lower |
| 12/16/2025 9:41 AM | JOBS DATA ARRIVES (FINALLY!) |
| 12/15/2025 1:27 PM | Choppy Action |
| 12/15/2025 9:38 AM | LOOKING FOR A NUDGE |
| 12/12/2025 1:29 PM | Friday Fury |
| 12/12/2025 9:45 AM | DO YOU HEAR WHAT I HEAR? |
| 12/11/2025 1:41 PM | Buyers Emerged |
| 12/11/2025 9:34 AM | THE GRINCH WHO SAVED CHRISTMAS |
| 12/10/2025 1:30 PM | The Street Awaits Fed’s Decision |
| 12/10/2025 9:41 AM | POWELL TAKES CENTER STAGE |
| 12/9/2025 1:27 PM | Fed on Deck |
| 12/9/2025 9:31 AM | NVDA GETS THE GREEN LIGHT |
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