Often, there are sessions which finish just about unchanged for the day, but there was a lot of action beneath the surface. Not yesterday’s session. It was ho-hum all the way, as volume was anemic.

• SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)-0.28
• Nasdaq Composite (COMP) –0.18
• Russell 2000 (RUT) -0.10
• West Texas Intermediate (WTI) -4.08
• CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) 7.41%

The VIX held at a pivotal support point. Purists say it has to get north of 35, maybe 40, to mark a bottom.

Heat Map

Four sectors were higher, as Consumer Staples (XLP) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY) edged higher. However, I was really surprised at the hit in Energy (XLE) – perhaps the best signal of a recession.

Investors have begun to nibble at Walmart (WMT) and Home Depot (HD), and even Meta (Meta). 

Dang…That Was Fast!

The Atlanta Fed posted its third-quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) estimate on Friday and changed it yesterday.

If Friday’s job report comes in below the consensus, and with a one handle or even negative, this market will  go wild with joy of Fed rate cuts.

Today’s Session

Futures have been down most of the morning but hinted at trying to move higher into the opening bell.  I think Caterpillar’s (CAT) missing on the top line put the kibosh on that.  There is a little anxiety about Speaker Pelosi heading to Taiwan, although nobody believes she will be shot out of the air. Here is Nancy Pelosi's flight tracker https://flightaware.com/live/flight/SPAR19

Still bond yields continue to retreat quickly.  At this rate, the 10-year could ease down to 2.40%, which is the current trend line support point.

The action generally favors growth stocks, which have already had a great earnings season.  Soon focus will shift to Friday and the jobs report.

A lot of influential Fed speakers are out today, and the question is, how much will they attempt to clarify Powell’s comments?

• Evans
• Mester
• Bullard

Even with the market opening in the red, I like the way the market is acting. But this is still a bear bounce, and we still have to be nimble, and have cash to be opportunistic.