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Afternoon Note

Tipping the Scale

By Charles Payne, CEO & Principal Analyst
7/29/2022 1:33 PM

This morning, I thought the elevated PCE and ECI would cause folks to second guess Powell.  But then, the Chicago PMI was released, and it was an unmitigated disaster.  Production hit a two-year low, new orders a 25-month low, but prices paid actually moved higher.

What’s really worrisome is how fast economic data is dropping.  That's tipping the scale back to recession, which is what the street prefers. 

There are so many great charts, all hinting at major breakouts.  We are on the cusp, but we are not there yet.  So remain disciplined. 

There is lots of big news out next week, including the jobs report - if that is a dud, this market erupts higher.  

Enjoy the weekend and stay safe.

What chart is displayed? (PCE, ECI or PMI)

Phillip Wayne Matthews on 7/29/2022 2:02:52 PM
It is the Chicago PMI, which fell to 52.1 in July from 56 in June. This was the lowest read since August 2020.

Daliah Amar on 7/29/2022 2:24:07 PM

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