Today is back-to-work for everyone, and that means today’s session could be considered a harbinger of near-term demand and overall market narratives. Friday saw memory chip names dominate right on the heels of their remarkable 2025 performances.

Midcaps dominated across almost all factors, followed by small-caps, as large-caps barely got out of the gate.

Seasonality

Seasonality worked better in 2024, but it still has an uncanny track record, suggesting this should be a strong week for stocks.

Retail investors have come into 2026 on a high, and are less bearish than they have been in a long time.

Rotation

I know there has been a trail of false reversals between equal-weight S&P and cap-weight, but it's worked in the past month, followed by value over the past three months, and small-caps over the past six months.

I wouldn’t become aggressive with equal weight (RSP) until there is a close above the 200-day moving average versus cap-weight (SPY).

Trump Doctrine

The capture of Maduro and his wife over the weekend should not have been a complete surprise to anyone paying attention to actions taken by President Trump and the articulation of his doctrine, which has been instated by past presidents, who guided the United States above its European peers.

There will not be an immediate impact on the oil market, but the timing is perfect on several fronts.

• There will be a massive investment to reconstitute the Venezuelan oil industry.
• Crude shipments to China will be halted.
• U.S. refineries will have heavy, sour crude as the fracking miracle begins to ease.

Crude has been in a downward trend (-22% in the past year) and has shown signs of bottoming.

Inflation has been waning according to Truflation, and if it's corroborated by the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, we could see a shift in the likelihood of a Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) rate cut.

Today’s Session

The market looks great at the start of trading.

The AI trade branching out socially in memory and investors kicking tires of also-rans from 2025.

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