New Year’s Eve was another sluggish session to close out 2025, filled with challenges, mishaps, and lots of ‘doubt.’ I like ‘doubt,’ especially when it begins for disingenuous or ulterior reasons. I don’t like it when investors lose money due to unfounded or overstated risks, but it creates opportunities.  

Lots of red on the screen on Wednesday, but very few disasters. It is widely believed that this year will see increased volatility (VIX). Some of that will come from pullbacks in big winners, which we’ve seen in Technology (XLK) and Communication Services (XLC) for weeks now.

Message of the Market

Not much to glean from advancers, but insider buying of Nike (NKE) and bottom-fishing in Target (TGT) could be signals for traders to watch.

Lots of Health Care (XLV) names among the top ten movers – the Street has been banging the drums on the sector for months, perhaps they will catch a bid this year.

Market Breadth

Breadth was also ugly, especially new lows on the NASDAQ, where investors’ passion run hot and cold.

Barriers To Breaking Out

The S&P 500 (SPX) made a new high right before a potential Santa Claus rally, then fizzled. The fact is that the market has been spinning its wheels since October.

The good news is dips have been short-lived, and the 50-day moving average has served as a “buy signal.”

We ended the year in a sea of red, but I don’t think it was a red flag.

I’m working on a Monster Payne’s Perspective for Monday, and I urge everyone to read it.

Today’s Session

The market starts the year with animal spirits.  The three-year run should embolden folks, not make them cower for the next big swoon.

Swoons happen, but this window of opportunity will not return for decades, or longer.

Tariff delays are also adding some oomph.

 

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