The market has put up a valiant fight but there is a lot to digest.  The jobs numbers, and then other economic data including ISM manufacturing report which missed consensus.  The first hurdle was the initial reaction to the jobs report which sent bond yield higher.

The U6 unemployment rate is 7.20% which is very close to pre-pandemic.

Cracks in Manufacturing 

The ISM Manufacturing report tumbled to an 18-month low and was riddled with red flags, including prices paid which erupted to an all-time high.

Backlogs are down because companies cannot find workers which is why employment is higher, but the decline in new orders is also problematic.

We raised a fair amount of cash in the model portfolio and think we’ll hold on to it for now. 

Note: Got lots of emails on Disney saga last two day.  Here is the alert that when out this morning:

Disney (DIS) the stock is a buy. These controversies from Target to Starbuck to Nike never have impacted the companies enough to hurt the investment, that said, I wish companies like Disney would shut up.

When they join in, spread lies -only the opponents of the bill use the word gay - or dismiss the concerns of parents, it is problematic. Multinational companies do this after calculating they can lose conservative customers and make it out on global growth. It's a shame, but this is the new world we live in for now.

For those that do not want to own the stock based on this, I completely understand. There are stocks I would never own for personal reasons.

Just understand, most of these CEOs went to the same schools, have the same friends, and frequent the same organizations. It's rare any of these areas share conservative thought. In fact, many have disdained ideas outside their own ideology. This means your pool of stocks to own will be very very limited.

Disney is a great business and I hope management doesn't go further than statements of support. If they spend money that would affect social policy, then I would be reluctant to support the product and stock.

Meanwhile, I encourage everyone to read the actual law not through the lens of the media. If you are a parent or grandparent of children in third grade or lower, it will be of particular interest. -CP