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Afternoon Note

Consumer Is Spending

By Charles Payne, CEO & Principal Analyst
7/9/2021 1:39 PM

So bond yields are higher, but the downside bias remains in place. So what's up with the smattering of reflation trades moving higher?

The consumer is spending, and while they are drawing down on some savings, and increasing use of credit, this is seen as a sign of confidence. Moreover, it seems like there are cooler heads on the potential impact of the Delta variant on our economy. Yet, at the same time, SF Fed President Mary Daly suggested rates could be on hold longer because of the impact of the strain on the global economy.

Meanwhile, the message from the equity market indicates a strong economic backdrop is just as good a rationale for Financials to be higher than just a spike in bond yields.  Note, the leaders in the sector are non-banks.  

Energy is moving higher - considering the move in WTI oil, stocks should be much higher.

Next week starts the next round of earnings, and I see huge moves for those that beat and hike guidance.  Conversely, any reports that miss, even by a hair, could trigger punishing hits to their share prices. 

S&P 500 Index

+0.94%

 

Communication Services XLC

+0.85%

 

Consumer Discretionary XLY

+0.80%

 

Consumer Staples XLP

+0.49%

 

Energy XLE

+1.47%

 

Financials XLF

+2.27%

 

Health Care XLV

+0.44%

 

Industrials XLI

+1.31%

 

Materials XLB

+1.66%

 

Real Estate XLRE

+0.49%

 

Technology XLK

+0.84%

 

Utilities XLU

 

-0.42%

 

 

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