Wall Street Strategies
Hello! Sign in or Register


Afternoon Note

Good News Barely Gets A Mention

By Charles Payne, CEO & Principal Analyst
11/22/2019 1:13 PM

I’m not surprised consumer sentiment came in better than consensus and higher in November than October.  I am surprised how well it's doing when politics have seeped so deeply into every part of our lives, including consumer surveys.  Apparently, democrat consumers are still bracing for a recession, while republican consumers are looking for “uninterrupted expansion” in the year ahead. 

Interestingly, when the survey was broken up along income distribution, those saying their current personal finances improved came in at 54%, just shy of the all-time record of 57% with optimism equally shared across all income brackets.

In fact, for employed consumers under 45 years old, there is an expectation of a 4.6% wage gain next year. Meanwhile, this is the second-best streak of strong consumer sentiment ever.  According to the report, 30 of the past 35 months has seen the sentiment index at 95.0 or higher, only trailing the period from January 1998 to December 2000, where the survey averaged a read of 106.0.

 

Nov

Oct

Nov

M-M

Y-Y

2019

2019

2018

Change

Change

Index of Consumer Sentiment

96.8

95.5

97.5

+1.4%

-0.7%

Current Economic Conditions

111.6

113.2

112.3

-1.4%

-0.6%

Index of Consumer Expectations

87.3

84.2

88.1

+3.7%

-0.9%

 

US Manufacturing Alive and Kicking

This morning, IHS Markit released its US Flash Composite Purchasing Managers Index. Highlights include:

The news is helping the market, but it has gone largely unreported.  If the numbers were the exact opposite, there would be breathless reporting on the great manufacturing recession.  That’s the new unfortunate wrinkle and challenge for investors.  “Bad” news is illuminated and presented in the most ominous manner possible, and “good” news barely gets a mention.


Comments
You hit the nail on the head, as usual. Thank you.

John Farley on 11/22/2019 1:41:18 PM
The news is helping the market, but it has gone largely unreported. If the numbers were the exact opposite, there would be breathless reporting on the great manufacturing recession. That’s the new unfortunate wrinkle and challenge for investors. “Bad” news is illuminated and presented in the most ominous manner possible, and “good” news barely gets a mention.

Welcome to the era of Trump-haters! Infecting every area of life. That's why I am very particular whom I listen to.

Phil on 11/22/2019 1:45:04 PM
What bothers me is how many investors have been shaken out of the market or missed this rally all together over breathless coverage of rumors or overly hyped hiccups that are part of normal conditions.  CP

Charles Payne on 11/22/2019 5:31:52 PM
 

Add Your Comment


Submitted comments are subject to moderation before posting.


Home | Products & Services | Education | In The Media | Help | About Us |
Disclaimer | Privacy Policy | Terms of Use |
All Rights Reserved.