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Afternoon Note

Forgone Conclusion

By Charles Payne, CEO & Principal Analyst
10/30/2019 1:32 PM

Central banks around the world have been on a race to the bottom. While our own Federal Reserve got in the mix late, they are catching up. It’s a forgone conclusion that the Fed will cut rates today, but everyone is anxious over next steps.

Today, we got a better than expected GDP report, but one that also continues a declining trend.  The consumer is strong, but things like subprime auto delinquencies have some waving yellow flags. There are members of the Fed that believe things are fine, and others that believe it would be a mistake not to be preemptive to fight drifting inflation and a couple of cracks in the consumer.  Moreover, the lack of business investment has many worried.

While it’s true, rates are low enough and businesses are mostly on strike, the reversal in rates this year has sparked a revival in U.S. housing.  Should the Fed preserve the move?

Name of interest rate

country/region

current rate

direction

previous rate

change

 American interest rate FED

United States

2.000 %

2.250 %

09-18-2019

 Australian interest rate RBA

Australia

0.750 %

1.000 %

10-01-2019

 Banco Central interest rate

Chile

1.750 %

2.000 %

10-23-2019

 Bank of Korea interest rate

South Korea

1.250 %

1.500 %

10-16-2019

 Brazilian interest rate BACEN

Brazil

5.500 %

6.000 %

09-18-2019

 British interest rate BoE

Great Britain

0.750 %

0.500 %

08-02-2018

 Canadian interest rate BOC

Canada

1.750 %

1.500 %

10-24-2018

 Chinese interest rate PBC

China

4.200 %

4.250 %

09-20-2019

 Czech interest rate CNB

Czech Republic

2.000 %

1.750 %

05-02-2019

 Danish interest rate

Denmark

0.050 %

0.200 %

01-19-2015

 European interest rate ECB

Europe

0.000 %

0.050 %

03-10-2016

 Hungarian interest rate

Hungary

0.900 %

1.050 %

05-24-2016

 Indian interest rate RBI

India

5.150 %

5.400 %

10-04-2019

 Indonesian interest rate BI

Indonesia

6.500 %

6.750 %

06-16-2016

 Israeli interest rate BOI

Israel

0.250 %

0.100 %

11-26-2018

 Japanese interest rate

Japan

-0.100 %

0.000 %

02-01-2016

 Mexican interest rate

Mexico

7.750 %

8.000 %

09-26-2019

 New Zealand interest rate

New Zealand

1.000 %

1.500 %

08-07-2019

 Norwegian interest rate

Norway

1.500 %

1.250 %

09-19-2019

 Polish interest rate

Poland

1.500 %

2.000 %

03-04-2015

 Russian interest rate CBR

Russia

6.500 %

7.000 %

10-25-2019

 Saudi Arabian interest rate

Saudi Arabia

2.750 %

3.000 %

07-31-2019

 South African interest rate SARB

South Africa

6.500 %

6.750 %

07-18-2019

 Swedish interest rate

Sweden

-0.250 %

-0.500 %

12-20-2018

 Swiss interest rate SNB

Switzerland

-0.750 %

-0.500 %

01-15-2015

 Turkish interest rate CBRT

Turkey

14.000 %

16.500 %

10-24-2019

Key Earnings Reports

In addition to the Fed, investors are looking ahead to big earnings releases after the close:

Apple (AAPL)

Apple usually beats consensus, but the reaction has been harder to pin down since that 4Q 2018 report where management announced it would stop breaking out key iPhone metrics while it  lowered guidance.

Talk about anxiety, Apple shares are up 54% this year but unchanged over the past five sessions.

Facebook (FB)

FB has missed consensus by miles the last two times the company released its financials, which sent the shares down five percent in the following week last time.

The stock is up 43% for the year, and +0.60% in the past five days.


Comments
When in the course of human events.. does anyone listen, or even do anything?

Gerald Poe on 10/30/2019 2:01:21 PM
 

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