I’m hosting a live town hall event on the battle of capitalism versus socialism, and everything that’s at stake, which is everything.

Everyone is invited, so it’s a great chance to see the show in person, and I love meeting subscribers and viewers.  Hoping to get a lot of millennials as well, since they hold the key to the economic system that will guide America in the next century.

Make no mistake, for all the concerns we have in this nation, including education, opioids, debt and general discontent and anger, there is none larger than the idea of changing our economy.

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Yesterday’s Session

So the market was down again, but it rallied into the close to finish well off the lows.  Who do you think is buying these intermittent dips?  The only noise individual investors should listen to is the noise of the market, as any weakness will bring out a chorus of experts that have been deadly wrong – some for a decade. 

They still get booked on national television, and often introduced with hype (hey, you were right yesterday) that only adds to individual investor angst.

Sure, the rally is old, and the economy is due for something unpleasant to happen.  But don’t guess at when that occurs, and don’t panic.  There is 100% chance after the unpleasant period, the market will find a way to rebound to a new all-time high at some point.

The key is there is always new leadership and it’s unwise to take unnecessarily losses especially in current winners.  With that in mind, keep your head on a swivel.

Market breadth continues to flash a yellow flag, which means building cash and observing might be the best approach, even on names that appear to be screaming buys.

Factory Orders

New orders at factories surged 1.9% in March from February, the largest increase since August 2018.

Biggest Drivers

• Transportation equipment +7%
• Civilian aircraft +31%
• Motor vehicles +1.5%
• Computers +2.2%

Factory Orders 

Today’s Session

It’s all about jobs this morning.  I think the market needs good news on employment and wages, even with the screwball thrown by Jay Powell on Wednesday. 

My Estimates and Concerns

• 225,000
• Wages above 3.0%
• Construction higher
• Trade/warehouse higher

Worries

• Manufacturing
• Labor force participation - this was most disheartening part of March report as a quarter million folks left the labor force​

Nonfarm Payroll

The markets are firmly in the green after the April nonfarm payrolls slammed through the 190,000 estimates, coming in at 263,000.  The unemployment rate declined to 3.6%, the lowest rate since December 1969.  Average hourly earnings rose $0.06 to $27.77 and represents a 3.2% increase year over year. 

• Professional and Business Services +76,000
• Construction Employment +33,000
• Health Care +27,000
• Financial Activities +12,000
• Manufacturing +4,000 (has changed very little for 3 consecutive months)
• Retail Trade -12,000

Mining, wholesale trade, transportation and warehousing, information, leisure and hospitality, and government had very little change.