It's great to be back.  I’m also on the air today on ‘Making Money with Charles Payne,’ and the next 72 hours are going to be huge.

Although the market is up this year, the last few months have had an odd feel – not necessarily doom and gloom, although that’s the only hymn sheet you get from financial media, but the biggest money makers of the past decade feel stretched.

Collectively, the outsized returns of these names remind me of the reign of the Roman Empire.

The Roman Empire peaked in 117 AD, and the Western Roman Empire officially ended on September 4, 476 AD.

The three-hundred-and-fifty-year gap is instructive because dominance can persist without growth. That being said, markets price dominance and growth differently.

On that note, a great chart from Fidelity shows the monster surge in semiconductor earnings growth.  If you think this is the peak (Rome 117 AD), then maybe the S&P 500 Semiconductor Index, which is trading at approximately 10,991, trades at lower PEs like 12.

On the other hand, if the party isn’t over and semis can command a 20 multiple, then there’s around a 39% upside.

This is why results from Nvidia (NVDA) after the closing bell are so important – only BTC has made investors more money in the past decade (I have Stephanie Guild on that and the state of retail investors later). The company is under fire from several directions.

Accusations of circular financing to prop up the business…

Along with louder chatter about off-balance-sheet commitments from hyperscalers, NVDA and Broadcom (AVGO).

Off-balance-sheet stuff is spooking folks. These dynamics have resulted in a spike in credit default swap (CDS) spreads (insurance). What can Jensen say that gives investors greater comfort?

I have two of the very best on this topic – guests that have made you a lot of money – Beth Kindig later in the show, and we kick it off with Ivana Delevska.

After the close, lots of questions about NVDA investments which are obviously self-serving, of course, but are they nefarious time bombs that hark back to the Dotcom Bubble?

I say no.

Meanwhile, software (IGV) is under the gun again after a very impressive rebound – that didn’t take out the prior rally attempt (yellow flag).

Intuit (INTU) and Zoom Communications (ZM) are getting hammered on earnings and dragging other software names lower.

After the close, we get results from several big software names. That should make big moves in either direction.

Side note: Palo Alto Networks (PANW) is on the prowl – I’m hearing Datadog (DDOG) or Okta (OKTA) could be in play.  Others look compelling as well.  We never buy stocks on takeover speculation alone in the Hotline model portfolio, but these can be great trades.

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