Morning Commentary

Bond yields (TNX) keep marching higher, but the stock market is taking it in stride.

Bond Craziness
I keep wondering whether this move in bonds would have happened even without the stronger economy and competition from corporate bonds. Treasuries are in the worst stretch ever, and a 40-year bear market is potentially just getting started.

Stocks Resist the Madness

Broadening Out
Yesterday, the entire market surged as the ten-year yield tickled 5.4%, while Technology (XLK) had a strong session, with some weakness in hardware.
Real Estate (XLRE) was the only sector lower, which makes sense, as it needs yield relief more than other sectors.

Most factors were higher; large-cap growth and quality led the way.

Carnage on Full Display
The iShares Russell 3000 ETF (IWV) is a good session away from a new all-time high, but…

…54% of the Russell 3000 is down more than 20%, in other words, a bear market.

Short Squeeze
There is a monster short position against the iShares Russell 2000 (small caps). It's amazing; the Street loved small-caps coming into the year and was head over heels thrilled until this summer. The spike in yields has changed everything, including what looks like a macabre bet that these names go even lower.
Everyone knows I love short squeeze season – when this one happens, it's going to be shock and awe, but the timing is anyone’s guess.

| Tweet |
| 10/6/2026 7:09 AM | AIN’T AFRAID OF SKYROCKETING YIELDS |
| 10/5/2026 1:29 PM | Broad Participation |
| 10/5/2026 9:35 AM | LOOKING FOR BREAKOUTS |
| 10/2/2026 1:08 PM | A Friday Lift |
| 10/2/2026 9:41 AM | A GENTLE WAVE |
| 10/1/2026 1:15 PM | Volatile Start |
| 10/1/2026 9:28 AM | THE SILENT BEAR & RAGING BULL |
| 9/30/2026 1:35 PM | Waiting on Micron |
| 9/30/2026 9:42 AM | SALAD DAYS FOR SUPER INTELLIGENCE |
| 9/29/2026 1:38 PM | Weak Tone |
| 9/29/2026 9:35 AM | STRANGE DAYS INDEED |
| 9/28/2026 1:15 PM | A Soft Start to the Week |
| 9/28/2026 9:35 AM | BOND MARKET HISTORY LESSON HELPS |
| 9/25/2026 1:21 PM | Diplomatic Hopes Set the Mood |
| 9/25/2026 9:38 AM | THE LEAD HORSES ARE BACK |
| 9/24/2026 1:20 PM | Yields Set the Tone |
| 9/24/2026 9:35 AM | TOO HOT? |
| 9/23/2026 1:09 PM | Rate Hike Fears |
| 9/23/2026 9:29 AM | RECORDS, RIVALS, AND THE RACE FOR AI |
| 9/22/2026 1:17 PM | Digesting Monday’s Rally |
| 9/22/2026 9:36 AM | A Strong Start to the Week |
| 9/21/2026 1:14 PM | Monday Momentum |
| 9/21/2026 9:33 AM | Tech Poised to Surge |
| 9/18/2026 1:32 PM | Yields Overshadowing Chip Strength |
| 9/18/2026 10:09 AM | REMEMBER 3D PRINTING? |
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