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Morning Commentary

A GENTLE WAVE

By Charles Payne, CEO & Principal Analyst
10/2/2026 7:14 AM

Now and then, a gentle tide comes in that is not too abrasive, but strong enough to lift all ships. That was yesterday, when equities, crude oil, crypto, gold, and bonds moved higher.

Sectors

Only five of eleven sectors finished higher, led by Energy (XLE). Software (IGV) continues to catch bids in the same sessions where semiconductors are higher, even as "AI will eat everything" fears ebb and flow.  

Yesterday, Accenture (ACN) offered comments that put the obsolescence of consulting, data, and software on hold for now.

Heat Map

All eyes were on Micron Technology (MU), which opened under a fair amount of pressure and then began to turn around. It was the drum major in the semiconductor parade.

Computer hardware posted another strong performance, and Industrials (XLI) looked especially strong.

S&P 500 Map

Market Breadth

Advancers eased ahead of decliners, but up-to-down volume wasn’t much to write about, and new lows are replacing new highs.

The former continues to dwarf the latter. It's bear market stuff. I see lots of experts guessing on the next hot place to be and buying stocks like Nike (NKE) because of the carnage. Still, no matter how low the share price is, the company must show life.  All the action is in the AI story, and while the names are very volatile, they are worth the ride.

Factors

All factors were green, with mid-cap momentum attracting the most buyers. It's clear that bottom-fishers and value investors are picking their spots, and they love quality at a much higher level than it is now; hence, its performance goes up and down the scale.

Bond Yields Pause

The bond yield (TNX) freight train peaked briefly, and even pulled back. Meanwhile, Transportation (TRAN) exhibited some life, but needs to clear the 200-day moving average to attract more aggressive buyers.

The market continues to knock on the door of “extreme fear.”

Today is jobs day – the question is whether the number will beat the consensus. There is no doubt labor has improved this year.


 

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