Tough sledding last week; although buyers emerged on Friday, or sellers were exhausted, or it was a combination of both. Revenue, value, and quality attracted most buyers, as investors chose safety.

It was another down week – not disastrous, but it’s clear anxiety is settling in among would-be buyers.

Market Breadth & Heat Map

Decliners dwarfed advancers on both the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) and NASDAQ Composite, but there were slightly more new highs than lows on NASDAQ, and up volume edged out down volume.

Health Care (XLV) ruled the week off Moderna Inc (MRNA) developments, but the selloff in chips was an even bigger storyline. Some software (IGV) benefited from weakness in chips, as did Apple (AAPL), which has become an anti-AI proxy.

The Thrill is on Pause

After a parabolic surge, investors have begun to lighten up on semiconductor exchange-traded funds (ETFs).

NVDA Hikes Prices

Jensen spent the weekend crisscrossing the globe and hiking prices ahead of this week’s earnings release.

AI Wars

Lots of articles over the weekend about Anthropic and OpenAI and the rapidly growing competition. Growing token use is great news for the pick-and-shovel names, but financing issues mean Anthropic and OpenAI have to keep commanding the enterprise space and a large swath of retail consumers.

Mother’s Milk

Meanwhile, 87% of names beat second-quarter results, and it was remarkable. Interestingly, many names failed to rally on strong earnings news and guidance, and several have given back initial gains.

We are watching the watchlist.

More important than beating the consensus on financial releases is posting strong guidance. That’s what we’ve gotten, which belies the anxiety that is taking hold. We’ll use it to our advantage, which means adjustments, like closing positions sooner than usual.

It’s a huge week, with Nvidia (NVDA) earnings and the Jackson Hole Summit, and I’m chomping at the bit.

Today’s Session

Early market action should be quiet with an initial bias slightly to the downside, as everyone awaits Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's press conference at 2 PM.

Bessent is expected to outline the administration’s next course of action against Iran.  It's anticipated it will be the equivalent of a financial bunker-buster bomb.

I expect lots of questions on Treasury’s buyback program as well.

Throughout the second term, Bessent has had a calming effect on markets.  We will monitor the 30-year bond yield closely and, of course, the overall equity market.

Rotation is still occurring even inside technology, where software might fetch bids as chips remain under pressure ahead of the NVDA earnings release.   I think NVDA is extremely oversold here, but this company has set the bar so high it's been tough to gain and maintain traction.

We are looking at the fundamentals as usual first and foremost, but the 50-day moving average has to hold, or emotions could take the lead in steering the market.

Comments

Headlines and hand-wringing but don't we remember that Sept is usually the worst month of the year? Don't fight the natural cycles, just keep some powder on the sidelines until sometime in Oct then ride the cycle back up into Jan. Uh, but don't quote me on that, ha! T in Tx TJL on 8/24/2026 10:07:09 AM

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