Afternoon Note
News that the Senate passed a procedural vote to end the government shutdown has had major indices in the green. Strong performance in mega-cap and Technology (XLK) names is also helping to solidify gains in the Nasdaq and S&P 500.

In 1789, prior to the French Revolution, France was facing challenges in governance and fiscal management. To solve this, the king had to call the Estates General in 1789. It was made up of three estates: the clergy, nobility, and commoners. The sides could not agree on a voting method, or resolution, and were in gridlock for 43 to 46 days (depending on de jure/de facto). This gridlock came as the commoners demanded a voting method that was fairer in representation and ended in the famous Tennis Court Oath.

Currently, betting markets are expecting us to touch the length of the gridlock in the Estates General. Notably, the Estates General gridlock came in the early stages of the Industrial Revolution, which would propel production and the economy to new unthinkable heights. Coincidentally, today, we are at the early stages of a different revolution (AI).

The Magnificent Seven are making a notable contribution to today’s gains. Tesla (TSLA) and Nvidia (NVDA) are in the lead, rebounding from last week.

Market breadth is notably trending in the right direction. Advancers, new highs, and up volume are coming out ahead on both the NYSE and Nasdaq.

Only three defensive sectors are moving lower, with Consumer Staples (XLP) lagging the most. Meanwhile, Technology (XLK) is in the lead, as rebounds in semiconductors and AI plays are giving a boost to the sector.

The Ten-Year Treasury Yield (TNX) edged 1.9 basis points higher to 4.11%, holding above its 50 day moving average.

Today’s actions reflect a clear return of risk appetite driven by the renewed enthusiasm for growth and AI names, as well as, the relief over the possible end of the government shutdown.
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