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Afternoon Note

Searching for Direction

By Karina Hernandez, Senior Research Analyst
10/2/2025 1:34 PM

Major indices are split between red and green and looking for direction. An earlier pop sent both the Nasdaq Composite and S&P to new intraday record highs, but are now struggling to remain above the baseline. The ongoing government shutdown has left the market without today’s scheduled economic releases.

The odds of the government shutdown lasting longer than 10 days have continued to move upwards and is now around 70%.

In other news, Taiwan rejected a purported proposal for a 50/50 split in chip production from the U.S. The Vice Premier indicated Taiwan faces a 20% tariff rate.

This news saw little impact on semiconductors, the iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) reached a fresh record earlier today, benefiting the Technology sector and Nasdaq.

Technology (XLK) and Materials (XLB) are the only sectors in the green. Fair Isaac & Co (FICO) is leading Technology higher, after the company announced it would launch direct licensing of mortgage scores.

On the other hand, Real Estate (XLRE) is the worst performer.

Notably, many fintech names make up the top performers in the S&P 500 today.


 

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