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Morning Commentary

MOVING OUT OF THE SHADOW OF MEGA CAPS

By Charles Payne, CEO & Principal Analyst
11/12/2025 9:25 AM

I am impressed with yesterday’s session. The market stumbled out of the gate, as Technology (XLK)  names slumped early, but investors decided to find other places to invest instead of racing to the sidelines. There was a fair amount of bottom fishing.

Sixty-eight percent of the S&P (SPX) finished higher, and while it's not the catalyst that triggers a technical thrust, it is a vast improvement. Names trading above their 50-day moving average soared to 48% from 38% last Thursday.

Flight to (Cheap) Quality & Value

There were still a fair number of decliners, but new highs exceeded new lows on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) and NASDAQ; in a twist from the 2025 norm, up volume was significantly higher than down volume on the NYSE. This is another sign of bottom fishing among quality names that have been beaten down and now have favorable risk-reward ratios.

Bottom Fishing Time
Value (VTG) has significantly underperformed growth (VUG) to the point it's easy to believe it's overdone.

For all of the talk of bubbles and the market being overbought, it's been so rare to see all boats higher on the same tide. 

The trick for the 493, especially those that are clearly oversold, is to rally on the same days as growth and momentum.

Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) put on an excellent investor conference. They announced that it would become a $1.0 trillion data center business by 2030, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of greater than 40%. 

This could spark artificial intelligence (AI) stocks today – it’s just a hunch.

Today’s Session

The government might reopen tonight, and although it was a non-market event (again), lingering in no-man’s land was causing more concern about long-lasting damage.  Historically, the first month after reopening has propelled the stock market higher.


 

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