Afternoon Note
Major indices are showing resolve, moving off session lows and are currently in the green.

Energy (XLE) is once again in the lead, with oil heading for its biggest weekly gain in three months. Oil prices are getting a boost from increased demand expectations, lower crude inventories in the US, OPEC+ only producing at 75% of their planned increase, and Russia curbing exports as continued Ukrainian strikes on their refineries are causing domestic shortages.

Mega-caps in Technology (XLK) are contributing to the Nasdaq’s and Technology’s (XLK) underperformance. Consumer Staples (XLP) is another laggard, and its move down is driven by Costco’s (COST) quarterly results, which saw lower than expected same-store sales.

Precious metals are rallying today. Platinum is reaching its highest price in 12 years, and Silver is reaching its highest price in 14 years. This comes in part due to mining output falling, while investment inflows are rising.


The ten-year treasury yield (TNX) continues to move higher, rising 1.9 basis points today, and testing the 4.20% level.

Government Shutdowns
The government could shut down next week on Tuesday if an agreement isn’t reached. Betting odds for a government shutdown have risen after Trump indicated he is willing to stand firm on spending discipline.

Historically, the market tends to come out of shutdowns slightly higher. The year ahead gains also show that, while this can cause short-term gyrations, the market has tended to continue performing in the long term.

Have a great weekend!
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| 3/31/2026 1:25 PM | Markets Rally on Easing Geopolitical Concerns |
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