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Afternoon Note

Interest Rates in Focus

By Karina Hernandez, Senior Research Analyst
6/12/2025 1:27 PM

Major indices are mostly holding marginally in the green, moving off of the morning lows. The recovery was driven by mega-cap stocks and semiconductors, which have been strength leaders from the April 7 lows.

The ten year treasury yield (TNX) is continuing lower, down 4.3 basis points to 4.369%, and testing its 50 day moving average.

Six sectors are moving higher, led by Technology (XLK) after a favorable reaction to Oracle’s (ORCL) earnings released from yesterday after the close. On the other hand, Communication Services (XLC) is the laggard.

Trump made further comments today, calling for lower interest rates. He noted the interest rate cut should be based on current inflation data and a raise should be considered if inflation goes up in the future. He also hinted that he, “may have to force something,” as part of his ongoing push for the Fed to lower rates. Last week, Trump said that a decision on the next Fed chair would come very soon.

Strong treasury action to finish off the week’s offerings. The Treasury auctioned $22 billion of 30-year bonds at 4.845%, which is 1.4 bps below the 4.859% when issued. In addition, the auction had strong demand with a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.43.


 

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