Yesterday, Microsoft (MSFT) enjoyed its best post-earnings session in a long time and carried the market along for the ride. The bigger story is the return of the Data Center play (it never really went away).

Growth and momentum enjoyed solid outings, but small quality made the most significant gain.

Back to Neutral

After being stuck in ‘extreme fear’ for a couple of weeks, the shift back to neutral is impressive. It has been the ultimate sigh of relief rally. Being in neutral is like being back at the starting line.

But events that sparked the selloff, including the fear campaign, haven’t disappeared. We have been reminded that great companies can be nimble, survive, and even thrive in challenging circumstances.

The A’s Don’t Have It

Apple (AAPL) beat on the top and bottom lines and only slightly missed the consensus for “Services” revenue. Oddly, the $100 billion buyback announcement hit like a scream for help, and the stock was under pressure most of the evening.

Amazon (AMZN) beat and offered guidance above the consensus, but the stock barely nudged after the close.

The Labor Market

The Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) fingerprints are in the latest Challenger Gray & Christmas Job Cut Announcement Report.

April saw an overall decline in announcements to 105,441 from 275,240 in March. However, the number is still much higher than a year earlier, as retail, Technology (XLK), warehousing, and services rounded out the top five industries.

I continue to see the labor crisis as an attrition crisis, and the lack of hiring demand is driving the U3 unemployment rate higher.

Guessing Key Metrics

The Street is looking for 135,000 nonfarm payrolls, and the unemployment rate remains at 4.2%, while wages have climbed by 0.3% (m/m) and 3.9% (y/y). I have no idea how the numbers will come out.

Today’s Session

Nobody Was This Optimistic

The jobs report is out, and it’s come in higher than all the estimates from Wall Street and other entities that monitor these things.

The stock market loves the number!

Keep Those Warehouse Jobs Coming

I’m thrilled to see a climb in transportation and warehousing jobs in part because these are good paying jobs that were supposed to decline because of tariffs.

Stock of the Day

Five Below (FIVE) upped its guidance for the first quarter, which is huge news considering the lower-end consumer is under the most pressure.

For me, the story is that the tariff hype will not materialize to the harshest degrees thrown out there.  But these headlines are not going to stop.  I’m not sure what it will be, although permanent job losers look like the sore spot on today’s report, but look for some seriously negative media coverage before the closing bell.

Comments

The most impressive announcement today was that Government jobs went down and private positions increased in sufficient quantity to beat the preannouncement projections. Terry Lavis on 5/2/2025 8:54:42 AM

I'm pleased with the surge in participation and steady wages, and thrilled with the boost in transportation and warehousing jobs.  There will be a negative media angle before the day is over. Still, the stock market understands that this underscores the resolve of our economy, which strengthens our negotiating position on trade.  USAUSAUSA Charles Payne on 5/2/2025 9:05:31 AM

So excited to see the large increase in jobs in April due to transportation and manufacturing! As stated, the jobs number includes cuts to government jobs. In 2024 we know that thousands of government jobs were added by Biden administration to make the jobs # seem better. Doge has cut these inefficient jobs and the Jobs number is still increasing. Am I wrong? I do not hear anyone talking about it... Cindy Wade on 5/2/2025 10:58:17 AM

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