For the record books, yesterday was an up day and the fifth in a row, which hadn’t happened since November last year. The bigger news is that after coming out of the gate with some oomph and giving up those gains, the market didn’t fall apart.

There was a defensive tone with Health Care (XLV) and Utilities (XLU) names leading.

The good news is the broader participation. The New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) Advance/Decline Line (A/D) signal was triggered, which generally bodes well for the market.

The NYSE A/D Line is back above the 50 and 200-day moving averages.

Earnings Shift into Overdrive

After waves of lowered adjustments to S&P 500 price targets, we began the week with the consensus average at 6579, or +19.9 % for the year (Thursday’s close).

That’s down 362 basis points (bps) in seven weeks.

• Technology (XLK) is expected to be the biggest gainer, up 27.8% (+37.7% less than two weeks ago).
• Consumer Discretionary (XLY): +23.8% (was 36.2%)
• Communication Services (XLC): +22.7% (down from 33.1%)

Earnings Revisions Shifts into Overdrive

Recession Talk Shifts into Overdrive

Optimism hasn’t been mentioned much, but I’m still impressed with the vision offered in guidance.

Believe or Not

Financial conditions are actually easing. Go figure.

Today’s Session

The market is looking to open slightly lower. I was pleased with the comments from Scott Bessent this morning who talked of fully writing off the costs of setting up factories along with massive deregulation and tax incentives.

These are critically important, and they won’t be mentioned much in the financial media. Instead, the focus will be on soft data and the great recession guessing game.

Earnings have mostly come in ahead of consensus with few blowups.

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