What. A. Week!

The fear and greed gauge finished the week in the middle of extreme fear, which was a stark improvement from where it began. Once again, getting close to zero proved to be a buy signal—at least on a trading basis.

The “Mag Seven” continue to act better, and banks reacted nicely to earnings releases.

The screen is very green, which suggests something for everyone looking to take advantage of an oversold market.

Factors

On Friday, all factors were higher and for almost identical gains.

Growth and momentum eked out the largest gains.

Large Caps to the Rescue

Although other market niches are cheaper and midcaps are down slightly less on the year, investors are banking big time on large-cap names to charge ahead.

Two weeks ago, it looked like small caps would emerge, but they remain the most undervalued and yet the most dangerous as long as bond yields move higher.

Momentum of ETF Flows

Still, there is lots of work to do to get the market back to equilibrium. For the S&P 500 (SPX), the first step is closing above 5500.  Step Two is closing above 5750.  Meanwhile, there is still a chance of retesting 4830.

What Exclusion?

There was a lot of confusion over the weekend. I’m not sure what’s going on because we saw a communique from customers bordering on new reciprocal tariff exclusions but heard trade advisors add new language and terms that have only muddled the waters.

Wall Street loves the idea of exclusions, especially on $100 billion in Chinese imports (out of $437 billion) that would help large-cap tech names.

Today’s Session

The market is poised to open higher, led by names that are breathing a sigh of relief over the pause in reciprocal tariffs on technology.

Earnings Season Picks Up

Earnings releases pick up this week. 

The biggest name this morning beat consensus by a wide margin. Goldman Sachs (GS) posted earnings of $14.12 against consensus of $12.35. The stock is indicating an open higher but needs to close above $520 to attract sustained buying.

Seasonality might help.

Sentiment, according to US Investors Intelligence Survey, is at its lowest point since December 2008.  There may be more downside, but we are much closer to the end of the drawdown.