Morning Commentary
What an impressive intraday reversal, but I’m not surprised. As I wrote yesterday, the folks pulling the levers are licking their chops. Stocks, in general, are incredibly cheap (forget traditional valuation metrics and even looking just one year ahead), and they are eager to buy the dip.
The fact is, they want to have their dip and eat it too, which means the public has to panic-sell. Momentum led the way yesterday, but the top holdings aren’t necessarily the stocks you think.
Blueprint for Buying the Dip
Many firms on the Street have begun adjusting their target for the S&P 500 (S&P) for 2025 and 2026. This is intriguing from Goldman Sachs (GS) (below), which sees a move lower in the near term, then a strong rally into next year.
There will be a lot of chop ahead, but that comes with the territory of investing under any circumstances. The destination is worth the chop. But this is a time to assess each name in your portfolio. Selling at a new low can be a mistake; by the same token, new lows mean new lows – understand what you own.
Market Breadth |
NYSE |
NASDAQ |
Advancers |
1,518 |
1,692 |
Decliners |
1,265 |
2,707 |
New Highs |
48 |
58 |
New Lows |
256 |
675 |
Up Volume |
2.11 billion |
2.30 billion |
Down Volume |
1.48 billion |
4.29 billion |
Comfort Levels
I want to see a close above the 50-day moving average to get very aggressive, but a close above the 200-day moving average will spark some huge individual moves.
Today’s Session
Looking for a lower start and nonstop chatter about Liberation Day.
The recession conversation will also remain in the news. However, I don’t know any serious economists or market watchers modeling it; the topic is the right kind of fodder for the media.
On a recent note, seasonality suggests this could be a strong month for the market.
April Rebounds
Avalanche of Data
Comments |
Thank you Charles. It's great to hear a reassuring voice among all the naysayers. It's as if they want a crash and monetary disruption. Joel Collins on 4/1/2025 11:54:28 AM |
Thanks Joel,
The hatred for Trump, coupled with love for corporate profits above all, has created intriguing bedfellows - old school (country club) republicans and leftist blowing up Teslas.
Yes, they are trying to create a recession. CP Charles Payne on 4/1/2025 12:36:24 PM |
Tweet |
10/17/2025 1:43 PM | Friday Zig Zag |
10/17/2025 9:51 AM | They Warned Us About Everything Else |
10/16/2025 1:33 PM | Another Intraday Reversal |
10/16/2025 9:30 AM | ENCOURAGING BUT NEED MORE |
10/15/2025 1:23 PM | Intraday Weakness |
10/15/2025 9:53 AM | STRONG “DOWN” DAY |
10/14/2025 1:27 PM | Intraday Recovery |
10/14/2025 9:45 AM | HO, HO, HO |
10/13/2025 1:42 PM | Fears Eased |
10/13/2025 9:49 AM | ROUGH BUT NOT HELLISH |
10/10/2025 1:48 PM | Chinese Trade Negotiations Reignite |
10/10/2025 10:05 AM | BIRTHDAY BREAK |
10/9/2025 1:25 PM | Shutdown Continues |
10/9/2025 9:53 AM | DOOM PORN DOESN’T DISTRACT INVESTORS |
10/8/2025 1:14 PM | FOMC Minutes in Focus |
10/8/2025 9:45 AM | DIFFERENT TYPES OF BOTTOM FISHING |
10/7/2025 1:34 PM | Taking a Breather |
10/7/2025 9:55 AM | LOTS OF CHASING BUT SOME BOTTOM FISHING TOO |
10/6/2025 1:36 PM | AMD deal powers Semiconductors |
10/6/2025 9:42 AM | ROTATION HAS BEGUN |
10/3/2025 1:30 PM | Midday Air Pocket |
10/3/2025 9:33 AM | MUSCLE MEMORY & AI FRENZY |
10/2/2025 1:34 PM | Searching for Direction |
10/2/2025 9:47 AM | A HEALTHY ROTATION |
10/1/2025 1:29 PM | Shutdown Resolve |
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