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Afternoon Note

Opening The Hormuz Oil Spigot

By John Jean, Research Analyst
3/9/2026 1:16 PM

The market is seeing a continuation of last week’s volatility, although it has shown resolved and recovered the bulk of its big opening loss. The Iran Conflict and today’s further spike in oil prices continue to be the main themes.

Oil has moved lower throughout the day, now down 20% from its recent highs. The move was accelerated late this morning following reports that a Greek operated oil tanker, bound for India, successfully navigated the Strait of Hormuz. As Iranian capabilities continue to rapidly degrade, we could see further ships attempting to cross.

Trump also made comments today indicating that they have not decided to send troops into Iran and are still not near this outcome.

Technology (XLK) is leading the way higher, with semiconductor and memory names leading the way as investors look to buy the dips. Meanwhile, Consumer Discretionary (XLY) and Financials (XLF) are lagging.

Year ahead inflation expectations fell to 3% in February from 3.1% in January, marking the lowest reading in 7 months. This is due to consumers expecting a slowdown in prices for food, medical care, and rent, partially offset by rising expectations of fuel prices.

According to the NY Fed data, the percentage of workers who plan to quit their jobs has fallen to its lowest level since the start of the NY Fed’s survey.


 


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