The market showed some spunk late Friday after bouncing off a key support level. It will be tested big time at the open this morning.

The Oil Fear Index is at its highest level ever outside of the COVID-19 scare.

Opening the Strait

The key to getting markets turned around is reopening the Strait of Hormuz and getting ships insured. We have the firepower in the region.

Second Carrier Group

Lingering Aftershock

We haven’t gotten through the oil shock, but investors are looking ahead and trying to gauge the aftershock.

It depends on how long the conflict lasts and how long it takes for oil to flow, but economists are already factoring in higher crude oil into inflation expectations. A crude oil price above $100 could impact the Consumer Price Index (CPI) through 2027.

Inflation Impact from Higher Crude Oil

Bond Market Not Panicking

United States 5-Year Forward Inflation Expectation Rate was 2.11% in March of 2026, according to the United States Federal Reserve.

AI Trade Evolves

It's all about war and crude oil right now, but the future is all about artificial intelligence (Al). This was underscored by S&P's announcement of changes to key indices.

All the names being added to the S&P 500 (SPX) are AI plumbing, including two optical names.

All the names being added to the S&P 100 are AI infrastructure and chips.

As the market gets hit on geopolitical jitters, these are the kinds of names that should be on your “watch list.”

Today’s Session

There will be broad-based selling at the open as more names fall below their 200-day moving average, increasing vulnerability.

I anticipate taking reams of notes as we seek out anomalies and other signals. It’s not about picking bottoms but the right idea once the coast is clear.

Comments

No way will crude average $100 for more than a fews days Market will V bottom soon and the hapless financial media will be eating crow Mark Schneeberger on 3/9/2026 12:06:27 PM

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